Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Alec Gamboa vs Max Fried · 76°F

0.6% edge · New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox win

42.8%

New York Yankees win

57.2%

Fair line (home)

-134

Proj. total

8.39

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 3.95)New York Yankees (mean 4.43)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.39

Over

52.7%

Under

47.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	42.8%	+126	+134
New York Yankees	57.2%	-137	-134

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Alec Gamboa LHP · Boston Red Sox	2.1	2.0	2.1	0.9	0.9
Max Fried LHP · New York Yankees	5.2	4.9	4.9	1.5	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Alec Gamboa4+ 12%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Max Fried4+ 75%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jahmai Jones	4.7	.613	.193	.027	.136	.425	1.294	.229	.308	.383	.691
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.6	.722	.229	.028	.137	.191	.977	.255	.294	.414	.708
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.596	.192	.019	.181	.429	1.058	.244	.319	.435	.754
Willson Contreras	4.4	.579	.171	.014	.182	.431	1.152	.246	.340	.439	.780
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.690	.200	.017	.101	.296	.572	.258	.325	.395	.719
Andruw Monasterio	4.2	.645	.192	.010	.076	.336	.925	.242	.309	.357	.666
Nick Sogard	4.1	.606	.158	.013	.049	.383	.908	.226	.304	.316	.621
Connor Wong	4.0	.589	.165	.007	.087	.265	1.012	.232	.293	.353	.646
Eli White	3.8	.592	.118	.029	.109	.225	.963	.237	.289	.377	.666

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.6	.558	.162	.015	.188	.639	.989	.236	.347	.428	.775
Ben Rice	4.5	.544	.158	.019	.236	.548	1.051	.246	.346	.479	.825
Heliot Ramos	4.4	.674	.159	.016	.159	.379	1.141	.256	.330	.425	.755
Luis García Jr.	4.3	.704	.189	.024	.185	.264	.711	.277	.324	.476	.800
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.2	.566	.124	.016	.180	.460	1.167	.241	.331	.431	.762
George Lombard Jr.	4.1	.554	.178	.013	.083	.462	1.074	.233	.328	.361	.689
Spencer Jones	4.0	.480	.148	.013	.175	.355	1.415	.229	.304	.426	.730
Austin Wells	3.8	.469	.143	.006	.142	.395	.992	.223	.309	.393	.703
José Caballero	3.7	.554	.135	.006	.079	.369	.948	.236	.325	.354	.678

Data notes: away starter Alec Gamboa: only 26 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Alec Gamboa: only 54 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections