Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

September 10, 2026 · Ryan Feltner vs Max Fried · 70°F

2.4% edge · Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies win

30.6%

New York Yankees win

69.3%

Fair line (home)

-226

Proj. total

9.67

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 3.95)New York Yankees (mean 5.72)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.67

Over

57.1%

Under

42.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	30.6%	+246	+226
New York Yankees	69.3%	-277	-226

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ryan Feltner RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.7	4.0	5.7	2.1	3.1
Max Fried LHP · New York Yankees	5.1	4.8	4.9	1.4	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Ryan Feltner4+ 57%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Max Fried4+ 72%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.824	.172	.068	.097	.272	.789	.266	.318	.403	.721
Connor Norby	4.6	.676	.210	.008	.134	.338	1.200	.245	.308	.395	.703
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.555	.169	.020	.229	.285	1.319	.234	.288	.449	.738
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.725	.185	.015	.114	.387	.722	.264	.337	.406	.743
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.670	.166	.036	.093	.255	.970	.244	.298	.375	.673
Kyle Karros	4.2	.665	.185	.023	.095	.390	.881	.259	.336	.398	.734
Adael Amador	4.0	.610	.147	.012	.086	.322	.692	.231	.299	.348	.647
Jordan Beck	3.9	.571	.159	.031	.102	.259	1.093	.236	.291	.380	.671
Ezequiel Tovar	3.8	.560	.177	.013	.101	.192	.944	.236	.278	.377	.655

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.7	.652	.203	.028	.324	.556	.844	.294	.385	.594	.978
Cody Bellinger	4.6	.821	.205	.030	.208	.458	.558	.307	.380	.524	.903
Jasson Domínguez	4.5	.834	.202	.010	.158	.365	.836	.295	.357	.465	.822
Luis García Jr.	4.4	.793	.218	.031	.259	.258	.546	.318	.361	.576	.937
Spencer Jones	4.3	.623	.200	.015	.252	.386	1.274	.284	.354	.540	.894
George Lombard Jr.	4.2	.673	.201	.022	.100	.449	.887	.272	.358	.421	.779
Ryan McMahon	4.0	.582	.165	.005	.175	.476	1.031	.261	.352	.458	.810
Austin Wells	3.9	.552	.171	.006	.191	.394	.793	.262	.343	.478	.821
Anthony Volpe	3.8	.591	.188	.031	.134	.335	.711	.272	.341	.460	.801

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections