New York Mets vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Nolan McLean vs Carlos Rodón · 76°F

2.8% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

48.5%

New York Yankees win

51.5%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

9.48

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.76)New York Yankees (mean 4.71)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.48

Over

54.4%

Under

37.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	48.5%	+115	+106
New York Yankees	51.5%	-124	-106

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nolan McLean RHP · New York Mets	5.2	6.0	5.0	2.6	2.6
Carlos Rodón LHP · New York Yankees	4.7	4.9	4.3	2.1	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Nolan McLean4+ 86%6+ 57%8+ 25%

Carlos Rodón4+ 74%6+ 37%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.8	.643	.156	.016	.221	.434	.990	.241	.324	.439	.764
Juan Soto	4.7	.574	.137	.016	.295	.924	.798	.272	.418	.552	.970
Bo Bichette	4.6	.787	.191	.013	.157	.343	.857	.272	.330	.435	.765
Mark Vientos	4.5	.571	.148	.009	.256	.317	1.198	.238	.299	.464	.764
Carson Benge	4.4	.676	.155	.021	.154	.353	1.021	.253	.320	.418	.738
Marcus Semien	4.3	.571	.128	.011	.154	.394	.834	.224	.300	.383	.683
Christopher Morel	4.2	.456	.129	.007	.186	.390	1.301	.209	.291	.396	.688
A.J. Ewing	4.0	.637	.157	.017	.080	.375	1.033	.244	.318	.362	.680
Francisco Alvarez	3.9	.455	.108	.007	.200	.390	1.147	.220	.306	.425	.731

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.7	.561	.163	.021	.253	.576	1.119	.249	.353	.489	.842
Cody Bellinger	4.5	.704	.179	.028	.164	.467	.750	.266	.346	.446	.792
Aaron Judge	4.4	.532	.151	.007	.276	.840	1.167	.274	.420	.555	.976
Luis García Jr.	4.3	.707	.182	.027	.214	.277	.766	.281	.330	.499	.829
Spencer Jones	4.2	.511	.170	.012	.183	.386	1.533	.231	.308	.426	.734
George Lombard Jr.	4.1	.531	.171	.019	.081	.440	1.164	.222	.317	.347	.663
Ryan McMahon	4.0	.485	.134	.004	.138	.477	1.271	.217	.316	.376	.692
Austin Wells	3.9	.453	.138	.006	.150	.400	1.047	.217	.307	.391	.698
Anthony Volpe	3.8	.479	.158	.024	.102	.348	.949	.225	.303	.375	.678

Data notes: home starter Carlos Rodón: only 64 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections