Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Tomoyuki Sugano vs Will Warren · 82°F

1.8% edge · New York Yankees

Colorado Rockies win

29.5%

New York Yankees win

70.5%

Fair line (home)

-239

Proj. total

11.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Colorado Rockies (mean 4.68)New York Yankees (mean 6.77)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

11.46

Over

61.8%

Under

38.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Colorado Rockies	29.5%	+212	+239
New York Yankees	70.5%	-236	-239

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.7	3.3	6.8	1.4	3.9
Will Warren RHP · New York Yankees	4.9	4.5	5.1	1.5	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Tomoyuki Sugano4+ 44%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Will Warren4+ 67%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.832	.184	.066	.135	.296	.765	.276	.331	.440	.772
Cole Carrigg	4.7	.720	.182	.054	.138	.328	1.027	.256	.316	.420	.736
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.746	.187	.017	.154	.428	.756	.271	.347	.439	.787
Hunter Goodman	4.4	.543	.176	.019	.293	.310	1.262	.252	.310	.519	.829
Mickey Moniak	4.3	.597	.169	.051	.229	.216	1.055	.256	.299	.490	.790
Kyle Karros	4.2	.679	.193	.022	.120	.408	.869	.269	.346	.427	.773
Brett Sullivan	4.1	.579	.172	.031	.116	.254	.687	.234	.286	.385	.671
Connor Norby	4.0	.609	.180	.007	.145	.308	1.013	.257	.322	.429	.752
Zac Veen	3.9	.551	.153	.034	.167	.256	.943	.251	.305	.451	.756

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.8	.746	.218	.031	.393	.420	.763	.321	.388	.659	1.047
Cody Bellinger	4.7	.897	.229	.029	.257	.339	.481	.327	.379	.572	.951
Aaron Judge	4.6	.727	.203	.011	.450	.647	.833	.359	.456	.766	1.222
Luis García Jr.	4.5	.851	.232	.027	.310	.196	.499	.334	.366	.620	.986
Spencer Jones	4.3	.698	.223	.017	.306	.308	1.145	.310	.364	.603	.967
George Lombard Jr.	4.3	.731	.215	.026	.133	.348	.828	.287	.353	.460	.813
Ryan McMahon	4.1	.658	.177	.005	.218	.392	.947	.284	.357	.510	.866
Austin Wells	4.0	.598	.180	.007	.243	.307	.752	.279	.341	.530	.871
José Caballero	3.9	.714	.179	.009	.126	.276	.706	.289	.353	.451	.803

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections