New York Mets vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Zac Thornton vs Gerrit Cole · 73°F

3.5% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

44.3%

New York Yankees win

55.7%

Fair line (home)

-126

Proj. total

9.27

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.44)New York Yankees (mean 4.83)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.27

Over

53.5%

Under

38.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	44.3%	+140	+126
New York Yankees	55.7%	-153	-126

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Zac Thornton LHP · New York Mets	4.9	4.3	5.4	1.8	2.7
Gerrit Cole RHP · New York Yankees	5.5	5.0	5.4	1.6	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Zac Thornton4+ 63%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Gerrit Cole4+ 75%6+ 39%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.670	.146	.026	.236	.351	.943	.250	.315	.460	.775
Juan Soto	4.6	.592	.141	.016	.332	.750	.794	.280	.400	.584	.984
Bo Bichette	4.5	.794	.193	.012	.157	.250	.829	.272	.316	.433	.749
Carson Benge	4.4	.697	.156	.024	.159	.299	1.002	.254	.311	.421	.732
Jared Young	4.3	.583	.163	.023	.183	.292	1.013	.239	.300	.430	.730
Marcus Semien	4.2	.583	.132	.010	.161	.314	.808	.229	.291	.393	.684
A.J. Ewing	4.1	.664	.157	.019	.090	.303	1.026	.247	.307	.370	.677
Luis Torrens	4.0	.550	.155	.005	.138	.235	.868	.229	.281	.385	.666
Nick Morabito	3.9	.605	.118	.016	.076	.225	1.028	.227	.281	.332	.613

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.6	.759	.188	.013	.180	.378	.939	.270	.335	.449	.785
Aaron Judge	4.5	.590	.163	.007	.333	.773	1.015	.296	.422	.614	1.036
Cody Bellinger	4.4	.718	.171	.028	.178	.404	.607	.274	.344	.465	.809
Heliot Ramos	4.3	.671	.167	.018	.181	.322	1.003	.264	.328	.454	.782
Amed Rosario	4.2	.760	.183	.022	.112	.207	.795	.272	.313	.414	.727
Spencer Jones	4.1	.523	.170	.013	.218	.332	1.344	.247	.314	.474	.788
George Lombard Jr.	4.0	.560	.171	.020	.092	.397	.973	.238	.322	.374	.696
Anthony Volpe	3.9	.531	.175	.025	.126	.323	.825	.244	.312	.415	.727
Austin Wells	3.7	.467	.141	.006	.162	.355	.856	.231	.311	.421	.732

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections