New York Mets vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Christian Scott vs Cam Schlittler · 75°F

3.6% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

42.5%

New York Yankees win

57.5%

Fair line (home)

-135

Proj. total

8.98

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.22)New York Yankees (mean 4.77)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.98

Over

57.9%

Under

42.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	42.5%	+152	+135
New York Yankees	57.5%	-166	-135

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Christian Scott RHP · New York Mets	4.6	5.3	4.4	2.0	2.4
Cam Schlittler RHP · New York Yankees	5.4	6.0	4.8	2.0	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Christian Scott4+ 80%6+ 45%8+ 15%

Cam Schlittler4+ 86%6+ 56%8+ 24%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.8	.654	.145	.024	.195	.419	1.031	.239	.318	.422	.740
Juan Soto	4.6	.567	.138	.014	.282	.838	.862	.265	.401	.533	.934
Bo Bichette	4.5	.774	.183	.012	.139	.294	.902	.263	.315	.411	.725
Carson Benge	4.4	.681	.148	.021	.131	.339	1.105	.242	.309	.386	.695
Jared Young	4.3	.570	.154	.027	.160	.344	1.082	.232	.304	.408	.711
A.J. Ewing	4.2	.666	.166	.020	.073	.354	1.145	.240	.309	.351	.659
Francisco Alvarez	4.1	.471	.127	.007	.184	.370	1.243	.213	.292	.400	.692
Brett Baty	4.0	.549	.129	.008	.137	.312	1.146	.225	.290	.376	.666
Nick Morabito	3.9	.584	.110	.014	.067	.272	1.090	.218	.282	.314	.596

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.6	.540	.157	.022	.283	.522	1.112	.251	.346	.513	.859
Cody Bellinger	4.5	.691	.169	.024	.192	.417	.768	.267	.339	.463	.801
Aaron Judge	4.4	.514	.144	.007	.311	.781	1.165	.276	.413	.584	.997
Luis García Jr.	4.3	.659	.173	.026	.237	.242	.795	.273	.317	.506	.823
Spencer Jones	4.2	.489	.161	.012	.214	.347	1.526	.232	.302	.450	.753
Anthony Volpe	4.1	.520	.169	.023	.126	.358	1.021	.229	.304	.390	.694
Ryan McMahon	4.0	.449	.130	.004	.158	.451	1.293	.213	.308	.389	.697
Austin Wells	3.8	.430	.131	.006	.169	.383	1.034	.216	.303	.407	.710
José Caballero	3.7	.517	.135	.008	.089	.338	.983	.226	.311	.353	.664

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections