Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Drew Rasmussen vs Max Fried · 65°F

0.4% edge · New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays win

45.6%

New York Yankees win

54.4%

Fair line (home)

-119

Proj. total

7.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.64)New York Yankees (mean 3.82)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.45

Over

55.9%

Under

35.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	45.6%	+113	+119
New York Yankees	54.4%	-122	-119

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Drew Rasmussen RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.3	5.8	4.8	1.4	2.1
Max Fried LHP · New York Yankees	5.1	4.2	4.8	1.4	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Drew Rasmussen4+ 85%6+ 53%8+ 21%

Max Fried4+ 61%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.830	.179	.009	.132	.400	.750	.272	.341	.413	.754
Ryan Vilade	4.6	.659	.161	.025	.117	.331	1.174	.230	.293	.364	.656
Junior Caminero	4.5	.622	.166	.008	.255	.382	.884	.260	.328	.494	.822
Jonny DeLuca	4.4	.629	.189	.017	.108	.231	.946	.231	.277	.365	.642
Chandler Simpson	4.3	.961	.134	.044	.013	.205	.417	.285	.321	.350	.671
Ben Williamson	4.2	.704	.181	.016	.045	.257	.865	.245	.298	.336	.634
Nick Fortes	4.0	.631	.166	.006	.090	.192	.676	.237	.285	.355	.641
Taylor Walls	3.9	.507	.128	.017	.043	.342	1.025	.196	.271	.278	.549
Cedric Mullins	3.8	.474	.128	.025	.099	.313	.869	.211	.283	.348	.631

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.4	.543	.150	.025	.246	.406	1.089	.243	.321	.479	.800
Cody Bellinger	4.3	.675	.166	.023	.158	.322	.742	.257	.316	.429	.745
Heliot Ramos	4.2	.608	.149	.015	.156	.269	1.193	.238	.297	.404	.701
Luis García Jr.	4.1	.658	.171	.023	.192	.176	.750	.265	.299	.467	.766
Spencer Jones	4.0	.498	.151	.010	.181	.252	1.520	.225	.279	.416	.695
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3.9	.513	.111	.018	.166	.315	1.151	.227	.295	.408	.703
George Lombard Jr.	3.8	.491	.152	.015	.083	.287	1.068	.215	.283	.340	.623
Austin Wells	3.7	.410	.126	.004	.139	.287	1.028	.203	.273	.368	.641
Ryan McMahon	3.5	.417	.120	.003	.119	.315	1.177	.205	.280	.355	.635

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections