Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

September 24, 2026 · Ian Seymour vs Cam Schlittler · 63°F

5.6% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

47.3%

New York Yankees win

52.8%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

7.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.85)New York Yankees (mean 3.92)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.77

Over

58.3%

Under

33.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	47.3%	+135	+112
New York Yankees	52.8%	-147	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ian Seymour LHP · Tampa Bay Rays	2.9	3.0	2.7	1.0	1.3
Cam Schlittler RHP · New York Yankees	5.4	5.1	4.9	1.8	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Ian Seymour4+ 35%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Cam Schlittler4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.780	.180	.008	.153	.415	.857	.265	.337	.419	.757
Liam Hicks	4.6	.723	.144	.011	.116	.464	.717	.246	.334	.373	.707
Junior Caminero	4.5	.586	.151	.006	.282	.396	.996	.253	.323	.501	.825
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.4	.592	.145	.030	.161	.326	1.093	.230	.291	.401	.693
Chandler Simpson	4.3	.944	.127	.041	.015	.211	.483	.278	.316	.340	.656
Jonny DeLuca	4.2	.566	.175	.015	.118	.236	1.016	.224	.275	.367	.642
Richie Palacios	4.1	.531	.141	.018	.085	.428	.898	.216	.306	.336	.642
Ryan Vilade	3.9	.511	.131	.020	.113	.302	1.110	.215	.283	.357	.640
Taylor Walls	3.8	.469	.111	.023	.039	.367	1.069	.187	.270	.266	.536

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.5	.653	.166	.010	.167	.362	1.093	.244	.311	.413	.724
Cody Bellinger	4.4	.634	.161	.020	.195	.391	.723	.255	.325	.453	.779
Heliot Ramos	4.3	.581	.147	.015	.182	.309	1.190	.238	.304	.423	.728
Ben Rice	4.2	.472	.132	.020	.259	.458	1.005	.241	.334	.501	.835
Amed Rosario	4.1	.680	.151	.020	.109	.195	.894	.250	.292	.385	.677
George Lombard Jr.	4.0	.470	.155	.016	.107	.365	1.126	.211	.293	.354	.647
Anthony Volpe	3.8	.481	.146	.017	.123	.305	.970	.219	.286	.376	.663
Austin Wells	3.7	.403	.122	.005	.154	.348	1.003	.205	.287	.384	.671
José Caballero	3.6	.486	.123	.005	.088	.292	.948	.217	.294	.341	.635

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections