Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Mason Englert vs Gerrit Cole · 63°F

6.7% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

50.5%

New York Yankees win

49.5%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

7.95

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.10)New York Yankees (mean 3.85)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

7.95

Over

60.7%

Under

39.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	50.5%	+124	-102
New York Yankees	49.5%	-134	+102

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Mason Englert RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	2.8	3.0	2.6	0.7	1.1
Gerrit Cole RHP · New York Yankees	5.6	5.2	5.2	1.4	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Mason Englert4+ 36%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Gerrit Cole4+ 79%6+ 43%8+ 15%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.7	.625	.163	.035	.210	.291	1.064	.237	.288	.434	.722
Jonathan Aranda	4.6	.682	.169	.003	.183	.382	1.202	.252	.323	.428	.751
Junior Caminero	4.5	.605	.158	.006	.327	.338	.887	.268	.328	.549	.877
Liam Hicks	4.3	.711	.148	.009	.126	.386	.623	.255	.332	.395	.726
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.599	.184	.017	.144	.202	.934	.235	.277	.397	.675
Richie Palacios	4.1	.568	.146	.021	.103	.381	.829	.225	.303	.358	.661
Ryan Vilade	4.0	.556	.140	.024	.138	.277	1.038	.231	.290	.393	.683
Cedric Mullins	3.9	.497	.128	.025	.135	.306	.911	.219	.286	.381	.667
Jorge Mateo	3.8	.475	.156	.009	.101	.176	1.135	.206	.247	.338	.585

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.5	.525	.146	.024	.269	.451	1.063	.244	.328	.497	.825
George Lombard Jr.	4.3	.553	.169	.015	.101	.373	1.210	.214	.291	.342	.633
Luis García Jr.	4.2	.656	.174	.021	.217	.202	.767	.265	.303	.481	.784
Heliot Ramos	4.2	.589	.143	.017	.176	.276	1.120	.242	.302	.427	.729
Spencer Jones	4.0	.478	.151	.011	.194	.293	1.501	.224	.286	.427	.712
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3.9	.501	.106	.016	.189	.347	1.126	.228	.302	.426	.728
José Caballero	3.8	.529	.127	.005	.095	.297	.995	.219	.293	.341	.634
Ryan McMahon	3.7	.430	.122	.004	.129	.351	1.190	.207	.287	.363	.650
Ali Sánchez	3.6	.516	.106	.005	.086	.203	.923	.213	.264	.325	.589

Data notes: away starter Mason Englert: only 66 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections