Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Trevor Rogers vs Brendan Beck · 68°F

0.3% edge · New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles win

46.9%

New York Yankees win

53.1%

Fair line (home)

-113

Proj. total

8.33

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.10)New York Yankees (mean 4.23)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

8.33

Over

64.4%

Under

35.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	46.9%	+108	+113
New York Yankees	53.1%	-117	-113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Trevor Rogers LHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.4	5.4	5.5	1.6	2.5
Brendan Beck RHP · New York Yankees	2.8	3.1	2.5	0.8	1.1

Strikeout ladder

Trevor Rogers4+ 80%6+ 46%8+ 17%

Brendan Beck4+ 38%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.7	.608	.176	.008	.165	.469	1.151	.229	.312	.394	.706
Pete Alonso	4.6	.544	.155	.004	.268	.430	1.100	.240	.324	.478	.803
Gunnar Henderson	4.5	.601	.165	.032	.188	.419	.955	.247	.326	.446	.772
Coby Mayo	4.3	.505	.159	.023	.218	.338	1.251	.228	.295	.444	.739
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.3	.541	.174	.015	.208	.179	1.181	.233	.273	.439	.712
Colton Cowser	4.1	.502	.130	.007	.158	.392	1.317	.215	.296	.381	.677
Jeremiah Jackson	4.0	.571	.162	.009	.160	.144	.924	.233	.266	.404	.670
Christian Franklin	3.9	.528	.121	.019	.073	.388	1.040	.214	.300	.323	.623
Carlos Narváez	3.8	.463	.130	.004	.106	.305	1.111	.204	.277	.337	.614

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.5	.743	.193	.011	.167	.354	.985	.268	.329	.440	.769
Ben Rice	4.4	.574	.166	.025	.269	.486	.966	.265	.351	.527	.878
Heliot Ramos	4.3	.668	.173	.019	.181	.309	1.076	.262	.323	.452	.774
Amed Rosario	4.2	.796	.189	.020	.101	.192	.814	.276	.313	.408	.722
George Lombard Jr.	4.1	.597	.187	.019	.110	.364	1.042	.245	.318	.395	.713
Spencer Jones	4.0	.536	.172	.010	.199	.308	1.378	.249	.311	.462	.773
Anthony Volpe	3.9	.556	.176	.024	.118	.291	.888	.244	.304	.405	.709
Ali Sánchez	3.8	.603	.133	.005	.095	.225	.921	.237	.287	.358	.645
José Caballero	3.7	.541	.139	.007	.087	.300	.893	.234	.308	.359	.668

Data notes: home starter Brendan Beck: only 16 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Brendan Beck: only 18 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections