Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Brandon Young vs Ryan Yarbrough · 66°F

14.3% edge · New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles win

35.7%

New York Yankees win

64.3%

Fair line (home)

-180

Proj. total

8.91

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 3.86)New York Yankees (mean 5.05)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

8.91

Over

69.6%

Under

30.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	35.7%	-104	+180
New York Yankees	64.3%	-104	-180

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brandon Young RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.3	5.0	5.8	2.0	3.2
Ryan Yarbrough LHP · New York Yankees	2.3	2.0	2.1	0.6	0.9

Strikeout ladder

Brandon Young4+ 74%6+ 39%8+ 12%

Ryan Yarbrough4+ 13%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.6	.635	.172	.011	.151	.491	1.070	.237	.324	.394	.718
Pete Alonso	4.5	.550	.159	.003	.267	.450	1.036	.246	.335	.488	.823
Coby Mayo	4.4	.518	.169	.023	.222	.354	1.213	.232	.302	.452	.754
Jeremiah Jackson	4.3	.623	.177	.009	.165	.162	.945	.237	.271	.405	.675
Leody Taveras	4.2	.616	.118	.036	.100	.287	.981	.223	.280	.349	.629
Rece Hinds	4.1	.514	.160	.019	.151	.252	1.207	.222	.277	.393	.670
Christian Franklin	4.0	.557	.123	.017	.067	.422	1.023	.218	.310	.320	.630
Yohel Pozo	3.9	.631	.165	.007	.127	.114	.517	.249	.275	.398	.674
José Barrero	3.8	.407	.104	.012	.129	.225	1.158	.188	.250	.337	.586

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.6	.601	.172	.029	.303	.549	.941	.276	.369	.560	.929
Cody Bellinger	4.5	.745	.192	.027	.198	.411	.621	.287	.355	.494	.849
Heliot Ramos	4.4	.685	.175	.015	.194	.359	1.037	.270	.337	.468	.806
Luis García Jr.	4.3	.728	.195	.027	.235	.233	.654	.295	.335	.532	.868
Spencer Jones	4.2	.551	.173	.011	.233	.345	1.378	.255	.321	.491	.812
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.0	.570	.136	.018	.203	.412	1.029	.256	.337	.473	.810
Anthony Volpe	4.0	.555	.180	.022	.129	.335	.857	.247	.314	.417	.731
Austin Wells	3.8	.479	.136	.006	.181	.381	.901	.234	.316	.436	.752
Ryan McMahon	3.7	.489	.133	.004	.144	.411	1.069	.235	.323	.409	.732

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections