New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

July 18, 2026 · Sean Manaea vs Jesús Luzardo · 78°F

8.2% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

46.6%

Philadelphia Phillies win

53.4%

Fair line (home)

-115

Proj. total

9.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.48)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.57)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.05

Over

51.1%

Under

48.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	46.6%	+155	+115
Philadelphia Phillies	53.4%	-170	-115

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.8	.742	.173	.017	.182	.369	1.033	.256	.326	.429	.755
Juan Soto	4.7	.643	.147	.017	.265	.857	.887	.280	.414	.535	.949
Bo Bichette	4.6	.866	.222	.013	.125	.288	.918	.286	.335	.431	.767
Francisco Alvarez	4.5	.586	.151	.009	.197	.376	1.288	.231	.303	.418	.720
Carson Benge	4.4	.720	.161	.025	.119	.342	1.077	.256	.321	.397	.718
Marcus Semien	4.3	.627	.141	.016	.129	.361	.906	.234	.303	.378	.681
Tyrone Taylor	4.2	.599	.183	.019	.108	.195	1.056	.232	.278	.372	.651
A.J. Ewing	4.0	.675	.164	.021	.069	.369	1.093	.254	.326	.367	.693
Eric Wagaman	3.9	.603	.155	.019	.104	.262	1.027	.241	.296	.380	.676

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.6	.789	.191	.020	.142	.313	.933	.268	.325	.423	.748
Kyle Schwarber	4.5	.444	.102	.009	.322	.723	1.366	.235	.367	.527	.893
Bryce Harper	4.4	.598	.204	.013	.231	.615	.954	.279	.385	.525	.911
Alec Bohm	4.3	.743	.179	.013	.125	.318	.685	.270	.333	.418	.750
Edmundo Sosa	4.2	.656	.158	.026	.138	.178	.942	.248	.294	.406	.700
Brandon Marsh	4.1	.643	.168	.021	.141	.379	1.145	.264	.337	.437	.774
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.578	.156	.012	.124	.289	.964	.240	.307	.392	.699
Derek Hill	3.9	.570	.130	.012	.113	.253	1.203	.232	.291	.370	.661
Bryson Stott	3.7	.608	.135	.028	.091	.342	.645	.256	.329	.394	.723

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections