New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

July 16, 2026 · Christian Scott vs Aaron Nola · 95°F

6.1% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

51.8%

Philadelphia Phillies win

48.2%

Fair line (home)

+108

Proj. total

10.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 5.27)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.78)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.05

Over

49.5%

Under

50.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	51.8%	+114	-108
Philadelphia Phillies	48.2%	-124	+108

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.9	.871	.215	.031	.104	.409	1.178	.274	.338	.406	.744
Juan Soto	4.8	.683	.161	.023	.332	.798	.797	.302	.422	.606	1.027
Bo Bichette	4.7	.917	.224	.014	.160	.253	.811	.298	.339	.464	.803
Francisco Lindor	4.6	.723	.173	.027	.199	.350	.857	.270	.337	.467	.804
Carson Benge	4.5	.768	.180	.025	.148	.308	.972	.272	.328	.436	.764
Jorge Polanco	4.4	.640	.166	.003	.197	.384	.935	.255	.325	.447	.773
Jared Young	4.3	.624	.167	.015	.185	.331	1.025	.256	.324	.451	.774
Brett Baty	4.1	.655	.148	.014	.141	.309	1.080	.252	.312	.409	.721
Francisco Alvarez	4.0	.565	.146	.008	.211	.314	1.030	.253	.318	.470	.789

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.7	.807	.190	.023	.158	.314	.970	.273	.328	.437	.765
Kyle Schwarber	4.5	.427	.108	.010	.346	.689	1.423	.234	.358	.540	.897
Bryce Harper	4.4	.591	.200	.014	.257	.592	.996	.278	.379	.540	.919
Brandon Marsh	4.3	.688	.176	.022	.160	.390	1.258	.267	.338	.446	.784
Alec Bohm	4.2	.727	.176	.013	.141	.307	.693	.272	.332	.434	.766
Bryson Stott	4.1	.675	.151	.031	.117	.369	.737	.261	.333	.412	.745
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.589	.154	.013	.139	.280	.988	.244	.308	.406	.714
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	3.9	.475	.138	.008	.141	.397	1.113	.220	.308	.387	.695
Justin Crawford	3.8	.703	.140	.028	.054	.270	.836	.265	.323	.367	.690

Data notes: game-time temp 95F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections