← Slate

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

July 19, 2026 · Nolan McLean vs Alan Rangel · 77°F
0.5% edge · Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets win
53.7%
Philadelphia Phillies win
46.3%
Fair line (home)
+116
Proj. total
9.52

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%7%14%03691215182124Runs scored
New York Mets (mean 5.08)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.43)

Totals

O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.52
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
New York Mets53.7%-123-116
Philadelphia Phillies46.3%+114+116

New York Mets — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
A.J. Ewing4.9.855.211.030.094.4541.100.269.340.394.733
Juan Soto4.8.658.152.018.311.886.735.293.427.5821.009
Bo Bichette4.7.904.207.015.154.301.755.294.343.454.797
Francisco Lindor4.6.716.166.025.197.394.791.268.343.465.808
Carson Benge4.5.764.168.026.140.361.903.270.337.428.764
Jared Young4.4.614.172.015.181.393.972.251.328.441.769
Marcus Semien4.3.631.153.017.146.364.746.245.313.406.719
Brett Baty4.1.639.149.011.146.3441.006.251.319.414.732
Luis Torrens4.0.623.174.007.107.264.837.245.303.382.685

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Trea Turner4.7.843.187.022.120.333.979.273.332.410.743
Kyle Schwarber4.6.450.111.011.267.7331.431.223.358.471.829
Bryce Harper4.5.600.203.013.184.6381.018.265.376.471.847
Brandon Marsh4.3.711.178.021.123.4131.245.265.340.416.755
Alec Bohm4.2.717.179.013.108.325.711.264.330.401.731
Bryson Stott4.1.677.153.030.092.391.731.256.332.387.720
J.T. Realmuto4.0.587.163.012.109.3061.002.239.313.380.692
Gabriel Rincones Jr.3.9.493.144.008.114.4141.093.220.313.366.679
Justin Crawford3.8.702.140.030.050.280.839.264.324.364.688
Data notes: home starter Alan Rangel: only 48 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Alan Rangel: only 37 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections