Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

July 22, 2026 · Eric Lauer vs Aaron Nola · 79°F

0.9% edge · Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers win

54.2%

Philadelphia Phillies win

45.8%

Fair line (home)

+118

Proj. total

10.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 5.57)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.89)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.46

Over

53.9%

Under

46.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	54.2%	-119	-118
Philadelphia Phillies	45.8%	+110	+118

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	4.9	.674	.193	.045	.340	.625	1.202	.293	.386	.597	.983
Andy Pages	4.8	.755	.220	.015	.229	.291	1.002	.272	.323	.480	.803
Freddie Freeman	4.7	.806	.234	.015	.194	.444	.875	.296	.369	.496	.865
Max Muncy	4.6	.551	.154	.015	.247	.566	1.153	.243	.343	.474	.817
Mookie Betts	4.5	.739	.214	.023	.186	.417	.566	.287	.357	.489	.846
Kyle Tucker	4.4	.665	.177	.021	.191	.514	.783	.274	.363	.480	.843
Teoscar Hernández	4.3	.649	.174	.008	.209	.270	1.151	.262	.313	.467	.780
Tommy Edman	4.2	.692	.154	.027	.118	.248	.808	.256	.307	.400	.707
Dalton Rushing	4.0	.557	.151	.006	.171	.346	1.133	.242	.316	.428	.744

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.6	.807	.184	.022	.182	.324	.865	.279	.335	.460	.795
Kyle Schwarber	4.5	.440	.109	.007	.413	.701	1.284	.257	.379	.618	.996
Bryce Harper	4.4	.585	.194	.013	.287	.612	.879	.286	.389	.572	.960
Alec Bohm	4.3	.738	.177	.012	.164	.323	.631	.276	.337	.452	.789
Edmundo Sosa	4.2	.648	.164	.024	.180	.189	.889	.257	.302	.447	.749
Derek Hill	4.1	.587	.136	.015	.152	.274	1.218	.235	.293	.399	.691
Bryan De La Cruz	4.0	.570	.135	.005	.178	.298	1.037	.241	.301	.426	.727
Bryson Stott	3.9	.615	.137	.026	.129	.360	.637	.260	.334	.425	.759
Rafael Marchán	3.8	.530	.118	.009	.105	.284	.663	.223	.293	.354	.647

Data notes: away starter Eric Lauer: only 63 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections