New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

July 25, 2026 · Ryan Weathers vs Tim Mayza · 79°F

3.4% edge · Philadelphia Phillies

New York Yankees win

50.2%

Philadelphia Phillies win

49.8%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

8.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.58)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.33)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.9

Over

39.3%

Under

50.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	50.2%	-121	-101
Philadelphia Phillies	49.8%	+111	+101

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Amed Rosario	4.8	.908	.192	.024	.111	.227	.959	.271	.311	.396	.707
Ben Rice	4.7	.604	.176	.023	.247	.517	1.032	.254	.345	.488	.833
Paul Goldschmidt	4.6	.747	.188	.011	.154	.364	1.052	.262	.326	.422	.748
Cody Bellinger	4.5	.729	.173	.029	.168	.425	.696	.272	.345	.454	.798
Trent Grisham	4.4	.544	.145	.016	.171	.569	.973	.232	.337	.414	.751
Jasson Domínguez	4.3	.719	.163	.007	.127	.346	1.020	.260	.325	.402	.727
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.2	.581	.122	.017	.178	.417	1.115	.241	.321	.426	.747
José Caballero	4.1	.604	.153	.006	.087	.350	1.013	.234	.312	.351	.663
Austin Wells	3.9	.474	.140	.008	.150	.364	1.007	.218	.298	.389	.687

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.6	.807	.182	.019	.142	.302	.963	.272	.326	.425	.751
Kyle Schwarber	4.5	.432	.109	.010	.326	.661	1.410	.234	.354	.529	.884
Bryce Harper	4.3	.583	.187	.011	.232	.569	1.002	.270	.370	.511	.881
Alec Bohm	4.3	.731	.174	.014	.133	.288	.716	.268	.325	.421	.746
Edmundo Sosa	4.2	.638	.162	.026	.140	.163	.995	.246	.287	.407	.695
Bryan De La Cruz	4.0	.584	.136	.003	.145	.268	1.165	.232	.286	.386	.672
J.T. Realmuto	3.9	.573	.151	.015	.124	.268	.980	.240	.303	.394	.698
Bryson Stott	3.8	.604	.142	.027	.102	.325	.691	.253	.322	.398	.720
Derek Hill	3.7	.527	.124	.014	.107	.230	1.182	.226	.283	.365	.648

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections