New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

July 24, 2026 · Cam Schlittler vs Jesús Luzardo · 80°F

1.6% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

45.9%

Philadelphia Phillies win

54.1%

Fair line (home)

-118

Proj. total

8.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.18)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.37)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.55

Over

53.2%

Under

46.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	45.9%	+121	+118
Philadelphia Phillies	54.1%	-131	-118

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.7	.743	.184	.015	.168	.363	1.231	.256	.318	.421	.739
Ben Rice	4.6	.562	.161	.020	.255	.477	1.169	.244	.330	.480	.809
Amed Rosario	4.5	.828	.189	.025	.114	.200	1.012	.269	.307	.404	.712
Cody Bellinger	4.4	.686	.159	.029	.171	.392	.790	.261	.330	.443	.773
Jasson Domínguez	4.3	.674	.160	.004	.131	.323	1.130	.245	.307	.387	.694
Anthony Volpe	4.2	.573	.170	.025	.108	.333	1.104	.228	.293	.369	.662
Trent Grisham	4.1	.487	.130	.015	.171	.518	1.024	.226	.329	.415	.744
José Caballero	4.0	.581	.144	.007	.084	.337	1.106	.228	.306	.343	.648
Ali Sánchez	3.9	.579	.125	.006	.078	.261	1.088	.221	.278	.325	.603

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.6	.778	.190	.020	.134	.294	.974	.264	.318	.413	.730
Kyle Schwarber	4.5	.418	.104	.010	.310	.656	1.426	.223	.345	.503	.849
Bryce Harper	4.4	.597	.190	.013	.227	.563	1.008	.272	.371	.510	.881
Brandon Marsh	4.3	.682	.168	.021	.142	.371	1.242	.262	.330	.426	.756
Alec Bohm	4.2	.698	.171	.013	.123	.303	.696	.264	.325	.412	.737
Bryson Stott	4.1	.650	.149	.029	.106	.346	.755	.253	.322	.396	.718
J.T. Realmuto	3.9	.563	.151	.013	.117	.276	.994	.234	.300	.381	.681
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	3.8	.471	.131	.006	.123	.368	1.109	.214	.297	.364	.661
Justin Crawford	3.7	.680	.141	.026	.054	.248	.830	.263	.317	.367	.684

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections