New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

July 26, 2026 · Will Warren vs Cristopher Sánchez · 81°F

2.6% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

37.8%

Philadelphia Phillies win

62.2%

Fair line (home)

-164

Proj. total

8.54

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 3.79)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.76)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.54

Over

45.9%

Under

46.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	37.8%	+178	+164
Philadelphia Phillies	62.2%	-195	-164

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.7	.791	.191	.013	.135	.316	1.142	.260	.314	.403	.717
Ben Rice	4.6	.618	.172	.022	.212	.405	1.113	.247	.320	.453	.773
Amed Rosario	4.5	.847	.205	.024	.089	.172	.955	.272	.305	.394	.699
Jasson Domínguez	4.4	.762	.169	.005	.115	.272	1.092	.259	.310	.387	.697
Anthony Volpe	4.3	.612	.189	.029	.094	.282	1.074	.233	.288	.366	.654
Trent Grisham	4.2	.537	.150	.017	.149	.446	.999	.231	.318	.403	.721
Max Schuemann	4.1	.621	.146	.011	.057	.367	1.041	.230	.309	.323	.632
José Caballero	3.9	.604	.151	.007	.070	.287	1.037	.231	.298	.335	.633
Ali Sánchez	3.8	.623	.129	.007	.068	.215	1.016	.231	.278	.327	.605

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.6	.809	.194	.022	.147	.310	.914	.274	.328	.434	.762
Kyle Schwarber	4.5	.445	.111	.010	.335	.696	1.328	.239	.364	.542	.906
Bryce Harper	4.4	.601	.192	.013	.241	.600	.944	.278	.381	.528	.910
Brandon Marsh	4.3	.686	.177	.023	.149	.393	1.158	.267	.338	.440	.778
Alec Bohm	4.2	.734	.172	.015	.128	.307	.661	.273	.333	.425	.759
Bryson Stott	4.1	.675	.152	.032	.111	.359	.697	.262	.332	.411	.742
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.588	.157	.015	.137	.294	.923	.247	.313	.412	.725
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	3.9	.488	.144	.010	.142	.389	1.033	.228	.313	.400	.713
Justin Crawford	3.7	.694	.140	.026	.061	.278	.773	.268	.328	.377	.705

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections