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Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 4, 2026 · Carson Palmquist vs Jesús Luzardo · 84°F
7.4% edge · Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals win
33.2%
Philadelphia Phillies win
66.8%
Fair line (home)
-201
Proj. total
8.99

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%8%15%036912151821Runs scored
Washington Nationals (mean 3.78)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.21)

Totals

O/U line
9
Proj. total
8.99
Over
40.5%
Under
49.7%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
Washington Nationals33.2%+278+201
Philadelphia Phillies66.8%-315-201

Washington Nationals — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Dylan Crews4.7.698.170.018.151.3061.226.240.299.392.691
Andrés Chaparro4.6.599.196.004.173.3781.268.232.302.405.707
Brady House4.5.712.172.010.138.2031.366.243.282.385.667
CJ Abrams4.4.642.184.029.166.2921.002.255.318.440.757
Harry Ford4.3.563.146.007.082.4481.283.212.304.320.624
Jacob Young4.2.711.159.024.070.256.902.250.306.358.664
Daylen Lile4.0.679.177.054.100.251.821.269.320.425.745
Nasim Nuñez3.9.680.093.021.042.3261.050.233.302.306.608
Jorbit Vivas3.8.596.153.007.062.357.655.241.324.345.668

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Kyle Schwarber4.7.460.117.010.348.8081.313.244.383.552.935
Trea Turner4.6.820.202.019.150.349.824.284.346.448.794
Bryce Harper4.5.615.210.011.242.682.870.287.401.541.942
Luis Arraez4.4.990.200.040.054.286.178.317.367.426.793
Alec Bohm4.3.746.188.014.138.351.595.281.348.443.792
J.T. Realmuto4.2.637.168.012.139.337.893.255.327.418.745
Brandon Marsh4.0.673.172.021.144.4241.029.281.361.460.821
Bryson Stott3.9.659.152.030.105.396.632.269.348.419.767
Justin Crawford3.8.719.152.028.056.324.743.275.341.383.724
Data notes: away starter Carson Palmquist: only 34 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Carson Palmquist: only 40 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections