Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 3, 2026 · Andrew Alvarez vs Aaron Nola · 83°F

2.4% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

44.1%

Philadelphia Phillies win

55.9%

Fair line (home)

-127

Proj. total

9.43

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.54)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.89)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.43

Over

44.0%

Under

45.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	44.1%	+135	+127
Philadelphia Phillies	55.9%	-147	-127

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	4.8	.651	.215	.010	.281	.600	1.371	.278	.372	.536	.909
Abimelec Ortiz	4.7	.628	.192	.012	.208	.324	1.159	.240	.300	.434	.733
José Tena	4.6	.768	.210	.033	.117	.282	1.220	.264	.313	.410	.723
CJ Abrams	4.5	.700	.198	.031	.190	.269	.919	.271	.327	.473	.799
Keibert Ruiz	4.4	.776	.195	.004	.141	.176	.535	.269	.305	.420	.726
Daylen Lile	4.3	.740	.200	.053	.123	.239	.762	.280	.326	.450	.776
Nasim Nuñez	4.1	.738	.098	.032	.049	.349	1.002	.243	.310	.324	.635
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.688	.162	.008	.069	.344	.627	.255	.330	.361	.691
Jacob Young	3.9	.703	.158	.024	.078	.224	.745	.263	.312	.384	.696

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.7	.888	.205	.024	.135	.350	.800	.290	.349	.443	.791
Kyle Schwarber	4.6	.492	.123	.010	.297	.790	1.214	.246	.384	.523	.907
Bryce Harper	4.5	.653	.219	.014	.209	.677	.821	.291	.404	.524	.928
Alec Bohm	4.4	.809	.200	.014	.126	.349	.585	.289	.354	.442	.796
Bryan De La Cruz	4.3	.686	.166	.005	.140	.332	1.012	.255	.316	.407	.723
Bryson Stott	4.2	.720	.167	.032	.101	.417	.595	.275	.353	.419	.772
Edmundo Sosa	4.0	.690	.179	.029	.125	.193	.788	.270	.316	.432	.748
Derek Hill	3.9	.633	.146	.015	.104	.283	1.058	.249	.311	.385	.696
Garrett Stubbs	3.8	.598	.133	.010	.079	.355	.835	.241	.322	.356	.678

Data notes: away starter Andrew Alvarez: only 69 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections