Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 6, 2026 · Miles Mikolas vs Cristopher Sánchez · 85°F

2.8% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

27.8%

Philadelphia Phillies win

72.2%

Fair line (home)

-260

Proj. total

9.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.49)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.53)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.02

Over

41.0%

Under

49.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	27.8%	+291	+260
Philadelphia Phillies	72.2%	-332	-260

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Crews	4.6	.738	.192	.022	.119	.247	1.137	.247	.296	.384	.680
Andrés Chaparro	4.5	.656	.211	.007	.135	.314	1.170	.242	.299	.393	.692
Brady House	4.4	.751	.184	.009	.111	.172	1.260	.250	.283	.376	.659
CJ Abrams	4.3	.707	.201	.031	.133	.236	.920	.267	.319	.432	.751
Harry Ford	4.2	.605	.161	.007	.062	.393	1.196	.221	.302	.316	.618
Andrew Pinckney	4.1	.686	.124	.015	.080	.208	1.362	.234	.281	.336	.616
Jacob Young	4.0	.735	.166	.022	.053	.207	.808	.260	.306	.358	.664
Nasim Nuñez	3.9	.688	.103	.021	.033	.276	.988	.236	.295	.305	.600
Keibert Ruiz	3.8	.683	.179	.003	.086	.127	.508	.265	.298	.389	.687

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.562	.134	.011	.417	.637	1.096	.281	.385	.634	1.019
Trea Turner	4.6	.900	.224	.025	.171	.255	.668	.309	.353	.493	.845
Bryce Harper	4.5	.699	.229	.016	.278	.534	.713	.314	.400	.595	.995
Luis Arraez	4.3	1.030	.203	.039	.060	.206	.134	.324	.360	.436	.796
Alec Bohm	4.2	.801	.200	.014	.152	.263	.484	.297	.347	.470	.817
Brandon Marsh	4.1	.770	.203	.023	.163	.328	.890	.306	.365	.501	.865
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.676	.193	.015	.154	.244	.739	.278	.331	.462	.793
Bryson Stott	3.9	.714	.163	.031	.118	.306	.503	.287	.347	.449	.796
Justin Crawford	3.8	.786	.159	.028	.063	.235	.617	.293	.341	.407	.748

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections