Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 5, 2026 · Jake Irvin vs Andrew Painter · 83°F

2.9% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

38.9%

Philadelphia Phillies win

61.2%

Fair line (home)

-157

Proj. total

10.03

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.59)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.44)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.03

Over

49.5%

Under

50.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	38.9%	+172	+157
Philadelphia Phillies	61.2%	-189	-157

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.8	.759	.227	.033	.216	.344	.850	.281	.345	.495	.839
Abimelec Ortiz	4.7	.642	.192	.013	.213	.380	1.033	.247	.314	.446	.760
Dylan Crews	4.6	.726	.189	.021	.167	.324	.931	.261	.322	.435	.757
Daylen Lile	4.5	.802	.217	.059	.128	.286	.687	.289	.341	.462	.803
Keibert Ruiz	4.4	.781	.207	.004	.138	.205	.461	.273	.314	.424	.738
José Tena	4.3	.724	.197	.026	.115	.311	1.015	.269	.326	.420	.745
Nasim Nuñez	4.2	.755	.100	.035	.053	.406	.898	.252	.329	.340	.669
Jorbit Vivas	4.1	.664	.165	.009	.071	.394	.540	.252	.337	.362	.699
Jacob Young	4.0	.721	.162	.023	.072	.263	.668	.269	.326	.385	.711

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.523	.128	.011	.377	.744	1.262	.263	.386	.587	.973
Trea Turner	4.6	.867	.206	.020	.161	.318	.793	.293	.348	.463	.811
Bryce Harper	4.5	.673	.223	.016	.252	.627	.847	.301	.403	.563	.965
Luis Arraez	4.4	1.046	.211	.042	.057	.253	.167	.329	.372	.441	.814
Alec Bohm	4.3	.804	.188	.014	.140	.315	.570	.290	.349	.451	.800
Brandon Marsh	4.2	.732	.191	.022	.157	.381	1.021	.291	.359	.477	.836
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.657	.173	.013	.143	.299	.842	.265	.330	.433	.763
Bryson Stott	4.0	.694	.161	.030	.114	.360	.576	.278	.347	.434	.781
Justin Crawford	3.9	.776	.160	.028	.060	.281	.720	.287	.344	.399	.743

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections