Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 7, 2026 · José Soriano vs Zack Wheeler · 86°F

5.9% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

40.2%

Philadelphia Phillies win

59.8%

Fair line (home)

-149

Proj. total

9.2

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.23)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.97)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.2

Over

60.2%

Under

39.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	40.2%	+186	+149
Philadelphia Phillies	59.8%	-205	-149

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.8	.879	.210	.018	.105	.321	.874	.275	.330	.402	.732
Alejandro Kirk	4.7	.798	.178	.006	.151	.421	.717	.270	.342	.423	.765
Jesús Sánchez	4.5	.682	.205	.013	.162	.314	1.218	.253	.311	.424	.735
George Springer	4.4	.655	.173	.012	.173	.378	1.005	.253	.325	.431	.756
Kazuma Okamoto	4.3	.579	.164	.005	.209	.318	1.155	.241	.305	.442	.747
Andrés Giménez	4.2	.706	.173	.015	.096	.186	.878	.250	.299	.374	.674
Ernie Clement	4.1	.804	.218	.017	.078	.159	.484	.284	.316	.407	.723
Josh Smith	4.0	.634	.140	.017	.083	.342	.888	.243	.322	.362	.683
Brett Bateman	3.9	.644	.122	.012	.033	.402	1.072	.234	.317	.304	.621

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.509	.128	.013	.267	.835	1.396	.237	.379	.484	.863
Trea Turner	4.6	.867	.206	.022	.113	.368	.903	.286	.349	.425	.774
Bryce Harper	4.5	.655	.222	.013	.190	.677	.956	.283	.395	.497	.893
Luis Arraez	4.4	1.042	.207	.041	.039	.283	.190	.325	.373	.424	.797
Alec Bohm	4.3	.790	.195	.015	.100	.350	.657	.281	.347	.415	.761
Brandon Marsh	4.2	.729	.192	.023	.114	.424	1.120	.283	.359	.437	.797
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.645	.167	.013	.105	.337	.940	.252	.325	.389	.714
Bryson Stott	4.0	.684	.169	.032	.082	.402	.660	.273	.350	.408	.759
Justin Crawford	3.9	.771	.161	.032	.042	.316	.807	.286	.349	.385	.734

Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections