Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 17, 2026 · Janson Junk vs Cristopher Sánchez · 85°F

3.7% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

34.3%

Philadelphia Phillies win

65.7%

Fair line (home)

-192

Proj. total

8.96

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 3.82)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.14)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.96

Over

49.9%

Under

42.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	34.3%	+220	+192
Philadelphia Phillies	65.7%	-245	-192

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Esteury Ruiz	4.7	.739	.196	.029	.090	.314	1.270	.243	.306	.365	.670
Heriberto Hernández	4.6	.652	.175	.024	.153	.371	1.350	.239	.307	.401	.708
Xavier Edwards	4.5	1.000	.155	.041	.038	.326	.663	.297	.351	.381	.732
Agustín Ramírez	4.4	.662	.211	.012	.120	.272	1.015	.246	.299	.391	.690
Otto Lopez	4.3	.882	.203	.033	.079	.228	.671	.296	.338	.422	.759
Javier Sanoja	4.2	.783	.234	.033	.061	.207	.472	.280	.318	.402	.720
Leo Jiménez	4.1	.662	.180	.008	.067	.271	.966	.247	.315	.355	.670
Griffin Conine	4.0	.531	.149	.011	.126	.309	1.368	.225	.292	.376	.668
Brian Navarreto	3.9	.557	.149	.011	.071	.193	1.048	.217	.263	.323	.585

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.547	.130	.011	.367	.618	1.201	.264	.369	.578	.947
Trea Turner	4.5	.884	.207	.022	.151	.264	.734	.298	.344	.463	.807
Bryce Harper	4.4	.677	.220	.014	.251	.523	.806	.299	.386	.557	.944
Luis Arraez	4.3	1.029	.199	.040	.052	.206	.162	.322	.358	.428	.786
Alec Bohm	4.2	.768	.208	.013	.134	.261	.545	.286	.337	.448	.784
Bryson Stott	4.1	.740	.172	.035	.110	.321	.579	.280	.341	.432	.773
Brandon Marsh	4.0	.707	.189	.020	.144	.319	.946	.289	.350	.469	.819
J.T. Realmuto	3.9	.643	.174	.015	.133	.244	.774	.268	.323	.435	.758
Justin Crawford	3.8	.772	.164	.030	.060	.238	.663	.292	.340	.406	.747

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections