Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 8, 2026 · Max Scherzer vs Aaron Nola · 80°F

7.1% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

45.2%

Philadelphia Phillies win

54.8%

Fair line (home)

-121

Proj. total

9.37

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.57)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.80)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.37

Over

43.3%

Under

56.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	45.2%	+157	+121
Philadelphia Phillies	54.8%	-172	-121

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.8	.922	.232	.014	.109	.334	.777	.286	.340	.418	.758
Brett Bateman	4.7	.803	.158	.016	.053	.488	1.188	.244	.326	.327	.653
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.6	.822	.222	.003	.228	.466	.623	.311	.386	.533	.919
George Springer	4.5	.681	.176	.012	.202	.399	.897	.264	.335	.462	.797
Jesús Sánchez	4.4	.677	.207	.014	.175	.301	1.063	.264	.320	.452	.772
Ernie Clement	4.3	.843	.225	.020	.092	.166	.438	.288	.319	.420	.739
Andrés Giménez	4.2	.711	.164	.017	.110	.197	.769	.257	.306	.392	.698
Brandon Valenzuela	4.1	.564	.143	.006	.120	.299	1.083	.223	.284	.360	.644
Josh Smith	3.9	.628	.151	.015	.092	.335	.795	.250	.325	.378	.704

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.6	.484	.119	.013	.383	.659	1.332	.253	.367	.582	.948
Trea Turner	4.5	.812	.185	.023	.165	.283	.862	.282	.333	.455	.788
Bryce Harper	4.4	.626	.205	.013	.266	.554	.917	.289	.383	.558	.941
Luis Arraez	4.3	1.000	.191	.039	.054	.218	.188	.315	.355	.422	.776
Bryson Stott	4.2	.716	.163	.032	.126	.346	.691	.270	.334	.427	.761
Brandon Marsh	4.1	.668	.176	.022	.159	.352	1.098	.274	.340	.460	.799
Justin Crawford	4.0	.783	.153	.030	.065	.265	.808	.278	.330	.388	.718
Bryan De La Cruz	3.9	.587	.139	.004	.147	.250	1.019	.242	.295	.405	.700
Garrett Stubbs	3.8	.560	.121	.008	.096	.289	.910	.229	.298	.352	.649

Data notes: away starter Max Scherzer: only 48 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections