Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 9, 2026 · Shane Bieber vs Jesús Luzardo · 90°F

4.7% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

39.8%

Philadelphia Phillies win

60.2%

Fair line (home)

-151

Proj. total

9.48

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.37)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.11)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.48

Over

54.9%

Under

45.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	39.8%	+179	+151
Philadelphia Phillies	60.2%	-196	-151

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.8	.803	.156	.013	.043	.548	1.331	.239	.329	.312	.641
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.801	.218	.003	.213	.516	.745	.298	.380	.505	.886
Alejandro Kirk	4.6	.788	.180	.006	.143	.455	.708	.271	.348	.422	.770
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.603	.175	.006	.220	.358	1.183	.245	.312	.451	.764
Ernie Clement	4.4	.850	.228	.019	.096	.183	.521	.285	.319	.417	.736
Andrés Giménez	4.3	.708	.178	.015	.102	.222	.888	.252	.306	.381	.686
Myles Straw	4.2	.695	.166	.013	.043	.319	.918	.239	.300	.322	.622
Josh Smith	4.1	.622	.151	.018	.085	.372	.909	.242	.324	.364	.688
Davis Schneider	3.9	.433	.136	.006	.138	.523	1.283	.212	.325	.379	.703

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.527	.130	.009	.368	.624	1.324	.257	.363	.569	.931
Trea Turner	4.6	.901	.210	.024	.141	.256	.813	.298	.342	.457	.799
Bryce Harper	4.5	.691	.225	.015	.247	.506	.869	.300	.384	.554	.937
Luis Arraez	4.3	1.035	.204	.043	.055	.208	.176	.325	.361	.436	.797
J.T. Realmuto	4.2	.688	.186	.014	.149	.256	.904	.264	.318	.432	.750
Bryson Stott	4.1	.742	.168	.032	.114	.308	.633	.278	.336	.429	.765
Brandon Marsh	4.0	.720	.188	.020	.140	.312	1.013	.290	.348	.466	.814
Alec Bohm	3.9	.736	.184	.013	.124	.250	.536	.291	.343	.452	.794
Justin Crawford	3.8	.779	.161	.029	.058	.237	.728	.290	.338	.401	.739

Data notes: game-time temp 90F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections