Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Sandy Alcantara vs Aaron Nola · 85°F

0.3% edge · Philadelphia Phillies

Miami Marlins win

44.5%

Philadelphia Phillies win

55.5%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

9.47

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.55)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.92)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.47

Over

44.5%

Under

45.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	44.5%	+119	+125
Philadelphia Phillies	55.5%	-129	-125

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sandy Alcantara RHP · Miami Marlins	5.8	4.3	6.9	1.9	3.2
Aaron Nola RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.2	5.1	5.5	1.5	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Sandy Alcantara4+ 64%6+ 27%8+ 6%

Aaron Nola4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jakob Marsee	4.8	.688	.172	.045	.118	.492	1.108	.240	.326	.384	.710
Otto Lopez	4.7	.946	.218	.040	.110	.255	.694	.298	.339	.440	.779
Xavier Edwards	4.6	.985	.143	.057	.051	.382	.672	.295	.357	.393	.750
Griffin Conine	4.5	.624	.166	.012	.231	.369	1.412	.254	.321	.470	.792
Heriberto Hernández	4.4	.571	.173	.017	.211	.368	1.262	.244	.313	.455	.768
Owen Caissie	4.3	.579	.177	.014	.188	.325	1.450	.246	.309	.443	.752
Esteury Ruiz	4.2	.621	.177	.024	.122	.298	1.115	.249	.316	.405	.721
Joe Mack	4.0	.567	.144	.010	.175	.280	1.072	.240	.298	.424	.722
Javier Sanoja	3.9	.708	.224	.027	.075	.208	.402	.280	.321	.417	.738

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.529	.142	.010	.306	.687	1.316	.249	.367	.522	.889
Trea Turner	4.6	.870	.196	.024	.143	.288	.796	.289	.340	.448	.788
Bryce Harper	4.5	.671	.220	.018	.208	.561	.870	.288	.382	.515	.898
Luis Arraez	4.4	1.063	.193	.038	.057	.203	.175	.327	.364	.434	.798
Alec Bohm	4.3	.827	.208	.015	.121	.261	.580	.296	.347	.448	.795
Bryson Stott	4.2	.746	.175	.036	.097	.360	.625	.279	.346	.422	.768
Brandon Marsh	4.0	.712	.183	.020	.121	.339	.998	.281	.346	.440	.786
Justin Crawford	4.0	.833	.176	.034	.053	.226	.691	.297	.342	.407	.748
Garrett Stubbs	3.8	.607	.134	.009	.089	.267	.869	.239	.302	.358	.660

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections