Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 18, 2026 · Cade Gibson vs Zack Wheeler · 78°F

2.8% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

36.8%

Philadelphia Phillies win

63.2%

Fair line (home)

-172

Proj. total

8.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 3.79)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.80)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.59

Over

46.9%

Under

53.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	36.8%	+188	+172
Philadelphia Phillies	63.2%	-207	-172

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cade Gibson LHP · Miami Marlins	2.3	1.7	2.6	0.9	1.1
Zack Wheeler RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.4	6.1	5.0	1.4	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Cade Gibson4+ 9%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Zack Wheeler4+ 83%6+ 56%8+ 29%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jakob Marsee	4.7	.619	.156	.040	.087	.467	1.252	.217	.306	.336	.642
Xavier Edwards	4.6	.968	.139	.063	.045	.382	.741	.291	.354	.387	.741
Otto Lopez	4.5	.863	.210	.036	.094	.253	.757	.287	.333	.422	.755
Griffin Conine	4.4	.553	.149	.011	.159	.341	1.585	.219	.288	.382	.669
Heriberto Hernández	4.3	.542	.143	.019	.167	.358	1.334	.225	.298	.402	.700
Agustín Ramírez	4.2	.558	.182	.013	.134	.268	1.050	.230	.288	.389	.677
Owen Caissie	4.0	.515	.164	.010	.142	.308	1.541	.224	.289	.388	.678
Javier Sanoja	3.9	.699	.214	.030	.065	.221	.498	.272	.317	.399	.716
Brian Navarreto	3.8	.524	.138	.011	.075	.199	1.119	.208	.258	.315	.572

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.476	.118	.011	.283	.787	1.359	.231	.369	.489	.858
Trea Turner	4.6	.835	.197	.020	.120	.329	.871	.279	.338	.421	.759
Bryce Harper	4.5	.624	.209	.012	.201	.661	.923	.278	.391	.500	.891
Luis Arraez	4.4	1.005	.192	.040	.040	.278	.188	.316	.366	.413	.780
Alec Bohm	4.3	.754	.186	.013	.109	.337	.632	.275	.341	.414	.755
Bryson Stott	4.2	.707	.159	.029	.098	.402	.663	.267	.344	.405	.749
Brandon Marsh	4.0	.686	.180	.024	.113	.393	1.072	.277	.353	.434	.786
J.T. Realmuto	3.9	.597	.166	.013	.105	.315	.883	.249	.323	.392	.715
Justin Crawford	3.8	.738	.152	.025	.045	.298	.761	.276	.339	.373	.711

Data notes: away starter Cade Gibson: only 68 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections