St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Quinn Mathews vs Andrew Painter · 72°F

10.5% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

50.1%

Philadelphia Phillies win

49.9%

Fair line (home)

+100

Proj. total

9.75

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 5.04)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.71)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.75

Over

47.1%

Under

42.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	50.1%	+148	-100
Philadelphia Phillies	49.9%	-161	+100

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Quinn Mathews LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.5	4.1	4.6	2.3	2.3
Andrew Painter RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	4.7	3.3	5.4	1.7	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Quinn Mathews4+ 60%6+ 22%8+ 4%

Andrew Painter4+ 42%6+ 11%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.9	.821	.197	.008	.171	.524	.723	.279	.368	.449	.817
Iván Herrera	4.8	.804	.198	.013	.165	.512	.796	.284	.377	.457	.834
Alec Burleson	4.7	.821	.213	.012	.210	.375	.650	.295	.357	.499	.855
Jordan Walker	4.6	.723	.211	.009	.186	.356	1.037	.270	.333	.458	.791
Joshua Báez	4.5	.597	.178	.022	.217	.289	1.216	.246	.304	.459	.762
Nathan Church	4.3	.790	.165	.022	.115	.257	.673	.270	.320	.407	.727
José Fermín	4.2	.685	.190	.006	.094	.436	.492	.261	.347	.391	.738
Jimmy Crooks	4.1	.601	.155	.012	.141	.315	1.134	.242	.308	.403	.711
Blaze Jordan	4.0	.697	.187	.032	.127	.203	.517	.277	.319	.445	.763

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.465	.112	.009	.261	.907	1.352	.225	.383	.468	.852
Trea Turner	4.6	.827	.186	.025	.124	.408	.823	.280	.350	.426	.776
Bryce Harper	4.5	.618	.206	.016	.177	.761	.904	.275	.403	.483	.886
Luis Arraez	4.4	1.002	.180	.040	.053	.303	.189	.315	.368	.419	.787
Alec Bohm	4.3	.785	.195	.013	.112	.369	.607	.286	.356	.430	.785
Edmundo Sosa	4.2	.676	.162	.035	.109	.226	.885	.254	.308	.398	.706
Bryan De La Cruz	4.1	.641	.157	.004	.122	.337	.985	.250	.317	.393	.710
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.608	.158	.012	.102	.347	.864	.249	.329	.387	.715
Derek Hill	3.8	.588	.123	.013	.098	.291	1.113	.234	.301	.361	.662

Data notes: away starter Quinn Mathews: only 3 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Quinn Mathews: only 38 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections