St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Kyle Leahy vs Cristopher Sánchez · 72°F

5.9% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

40.0%

Philadelphia Phillies win

60.0%

Fair line (home)

-150

Proj. total

8.7

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 3.97)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.73)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.7

Over

47.4%

Under

44.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	40.0%	+187	+150
Philadelphia Phillies	60.0%	-206	-150

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kyle Leahy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.7	4.2	5.3	1.8	2.5
Cristopher Sánchez LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	6.0	5.6	6.0	1.4	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Kyle Leahy4+ 62%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Cristopher Sánchez4+ 83%6+ 51%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.803	.188	.007	.115	.404	.877	.263	.338	.392	.730
Iván Herrera	4.6	.795	.195	.010	.107	.400	.968	.269	.348	.399	.747
Jordan Walker	4.5	.726	.223	.009	.135	.271	1.237	.259	.309	.413	.722
Alec Burleson	4.4	.792	.199	.010	.139	.292	.756	.279	.331	.434	.766
Joshua Báez	4.3	.581	.172	.023	.143	.215	1.389	.227	.275	.387	.662
Blaze Jordan	4.2	.727	.193	.033	.096	.169	.660	.262	.297	.399	.696
José Fermín	4.1	.659	.189	.005	.069	.350	.606	.251	.324	.361	.686
Ramón Urías	4.0	.623	.164	.007	.083	.233	.986	.238	.292	.354	.646
Pedro Pagés	3.8	.583	.146	.007	.084	.195	1.090	.227	.271	.341	.612

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.505	.135	.009	.288	.743	1.287	.243	.371	.506	.877
Trea Turner	4.5	.864	.204	.022	.129	.306	.788	.291	.345	.442	.787
Bryce Harper	4.4	.657	.215	.018	.187	.606	.852	.284	.386	.499	.885
Bryson Stott	4.3	.762	.179	.036	.086	.407	.648	.273	.346	.404	.750
Brandon Marsh	4.2	.738	.187	.022	.119	.389	1.012	.280	.350	.434	.784
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.682	.179	.014	.111	.288	.849	.262	.325	.405	.731
Justin Crawford	4.0	.830	.187	.033	.052	.257	.677	.296	.346	.406	.752
Edmundo Sosa	3.9	.664	.161	.034	.108	.169	.775	.264	.308	.415	.723
Bryan De La Cruz	3.8	.621	.147	.004	.110	.249	.887	.252	.305	.390	.695

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections