St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Hunter Dobbins vs Jesús Luzardo · 77°F

7.3% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

36.7%

Philadelphia Phillies win

63.3%

Fair line (home)

-172

Proj. total

9.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.09)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.20)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.29

Over

52.6%

Under

39.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	36.7%	+233	+172
Philadelphia Phillies	63.3%	-260	-172

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Hunter Dobbins RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.6	3.1	5.7	1.8	2.7
Jesús Luzardo LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.7	6.4	5.4	1.8	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Hunter Dobbins4+ 38%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Jesús Luzardo4+ 89%6+ 63%8+ 30%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.7	.756	.173	.007	.147	.467	.950	.258	.344	.408	.751
Iván Herrera	4.6	.746	.178	.009	.129	.472	1.037	.262	.354	.406	.760
Jordan Walker	4.5	.684	.196	.008	.165	.327	1.299	.253	.313	.422	.735
Joshua Báez	4.4	.560	.163	.019	.196	.250	1.494	.228	.280	.419	.699
Blaze Jordan	4.3	.709	.192	.037	.123	.210	.733	.260	.301	.416	.717
José Fermín	4.2	.656	.173	.006	.088	.409	.662	.247	.331	.368	.698
Everson Pereira	4.1	.520	.137	.011	.150	.283	1.454	.217	.279	.378	.658
Bryan Torres	4.0	.721	.134	.026	.052	.393	.885	.262	.339	.358	.697
Pedro Pagés	3.9	.553	.138	.007	.106	.220	1.133	.222	.273	.352	.625

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.533	.132	.011	.309	.758	1.210	.252	.380	.527	.907
Trea Turner	4.6	.876	.206	.025	.139	.316	.742	.293	.347	.451	.798
Bryce Harper	4.5	.690	.223	.018	.205	.624	.804	.295	.398	.523	.921
Luis Arraez	4.4	1.033	.192	.041	.053	.235	.158	.320	.361	.425	.786
Alec Bohm	4.3	.826	.205	.013	.124	.296	.517	.297	.354	.450	.803
Bryson Stott	4.2	.762	.176	.035	.097	.394	.568	.285	.356	.427	.783
Brandon Marsh	4.1	.722	.188	.024	.121	.375	.931	.288	.358	.451	.809
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.662	.180	.015	.112	.270	.759	.268	.331	.419	.750
Justin Crawford	3.8	.803	.173	.036	.053	.258	.620	.299	.351	.413	.764

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections