Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Martín Pérez vs Zack Wheeler · 77°F

3.0% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

43.1%

Philadelphia Phillies win

56.9%

Fair line (home)

-132

Proj. total

9.09

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.33)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.76)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.09

Over

51.7%

Under

48.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	43.1%	+144	+132
Philadelphia Phillies	56.9%	-157	-132

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Martín Pérez LHP · Atlanta Braves	4.2	3.1	4.9	1.8	2.3
Zack Wheeler RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.3	5.7	5.1	1.6	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Martín Pérez4+ 37%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Zack Wheeler4+ 84%6+ 51%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.759	.159	.011	.202	.387	1.098	.262	.329	.444	.773
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.6	.679	.157	.015	.188	.546	1.193	.257	.353	.443	.796
Matt Olson	4.5	.570	.186	.006	.234	.466	1.322	.247	.330	.470	.800
Michael Harris II	4.4	.766	.193	.022	.188	.167	1.032	.276	.308	.465	.773
Mauricio Dubón	4.3	.777	.187	.014	.076	.218	.652	.258	.300	.367	.668
Ozzie Albies	4.2	.666	.170	.008	.127	.276	.776	.249	.306	.394	.700
Dominic Smith	4.1	.669	.140	.016	.104	.276	.943	.245	.304	.373	.677
Austin Riley	4.0	.548	.148	.011	.139	.272	1.306	.231	.293	.390	.683
Ha-Seong Kim	3.9	.565	.136	.008	.071	.381	.882	.225	.307	.331	.638

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.6	.489	.129	.008	.318	.723	1.288	.244	.369	.528	.896
Trea Turner	4.5	.834	.191	.020	.140	.310	.815	.283	.338	.439	.777
Bryce Harper	4.4	.640	.212	.016	.211	.621	.857	.287	.391	.520	.910
Luis Arraez	4.3	1.005	.186	.037	.063	.239	.177	.319	.361	.429	.790
Alec Bohm	4.2	.768	.185	.013	.123	.294	.588	.281	.338	.431	.769
Edmundo Sosa	4.1	.682	.166	.032	.134	.171	.839	.262	.303	.425	.728
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.627	.166	.011	.123	.287	.851	.254	.318	.407	.724
Bryson Stott	3.9	.654	.155	.030	.099	.367	.614	.269	.342	.415	.757
Derek Hill	3.8	.574	.126	.013	.118	.220	1.085	.237	.288	.381	.669

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections