Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Chris Sale vs Cristopher Sánchez · 79°F

0.2% edge · Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves win

48.3%

Philadelphia Phillies win

51.7%

Fair line (home)

-107

Proj. total

7.95

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.05)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 3.90)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.95

Over

48.5%

Under

39.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	48.3%	+102	+107
Philadelphia Phillies	51.7%	-111	-107

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Chris Sale LHP · Atlanta Braves	5.6	6.4	5.2	1.4	2.2
Cristopher Sánchez LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	6.0	6.2	5.8	1.7	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Chris Sale4+ 90%6+ 64%8+ 30%

Cristopher Sánchez4+ 88%6+ 60%8+ 27%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.8	.756	.186	.019	.161	.525	1.165	.268	.354	.437	.792
Drake Baldwin	4.6	.788	.169	.012	.157	.348	1.020	.264	.325	.420	.745
Ozzie Albies	4.5	.773	.205	.009	.112	.243	.786	.259	.307	.392	.699
Matt Olson	4.4	.607	.206	.007	.189	.413	1.212	.254	.328	.451	.779
Lane Thomas	4.3	.603	.184	.007	.108	.318	1.256	.228	.292	.360	.651
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.810	.200	.015	.056	.188	.603	.271	.307	.371	.678
Sean Murphy	4.1	.497	.159	.006	.122	.312	1.281	.211	.283	.355	.639
Austin Riley	4.0	.593	.160	.011	.120	.249	1.263	.239	.294	.386	.680
Ha-Seong Kim	3.9	.598	.146	.008	.063	.360	.825	.234	.311	.336	.646

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.5	.409	.113	.008	.272	.556	1.630	.207	.316	.452	.768
Trea Turner	4.4	.722	.171	.020	.131	.225	1.098	.255	.301	.402	.703
Bryce Harper	4.3	.576	.193	.012	.193	.464	1.176	.258	.344	.469	.813
Luis Arraez	4.2	.959	.169	.034	.053	.191	.267	.308	.347	.409	.756
Alec Bohm	4.1	.697	.167	.012	.116	.228	.817	.261	.312	.403	.714
Edmundo Sosa	4.0	.592	.143	.029	.113	.125	1.070	.233	.274	.376	.651
Bryson Stott	3.9	.625	.149	.028	.090	.281	.827	.252	.312	.386	.697
J.T. Realmuto	3.7	.531	.143	.009	.105	.210	1.043	.228	.286	.367	.653
Derek Hill	3.6	.492	.119	.011	.102	.169	1.302	.213	.259	.344	.604

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections