Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Tyler Mahle vs Aaron Nola · 71°F

0.3% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

50.3%

Philadelphia Phillies win

49.7%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

9.39

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.84)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.55)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.39

Over

54.2%

Under

38.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	50.3%	-104	-101
Philadelphia Phillies	49.7%	-104	+101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tyler Mahle RHP · Atlanta Braves	5.0	4.3	5.5	2.0	2.5
Aaron Nola RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.2	5.0	5.5	1.6	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Tyler Mahle4+ 63%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Aaron Nola4+ 75%6+ 39%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.791	.175	.012	.221	.393	.989	.273	.338	.470	.808
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.7	.718	.171	.018	.224	.563	1.084	.276	.370	.491	.861
Matt Olson	4.6	.609	.200	.005	.254	.475	1.194	.261	.342	.499	.841
Michael Harris II	4.5	.779	.209	.025	.205	.168	.942	.283	.314	.487	.800
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.824	.201	.013	.086	.209	.585	.271	.309	.387	.697
Ozzie Albies	4.3	.697	.174	.011	.144	.280	.691	.259	.314	.418	.732
Sean Murphy	4.2	.493	.149	.008	.167	.363	1.218	.218	.298	.396	.694
Austin Riley	4.0	.578	.154	.010	.159	.294	1.231	.243	.304	.418	.722
Mike Yastrzemski	3.9	.497	.155	.021	.145	.383	1.011	.232	.311	.411	.723

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.469	.121	.009	.307	.703	1.411	.232	.354	.503	.857
Trea Turner	4.5	.811	.186	.022	.148	.290	.910	.276	.327	.436	.763
Bryce Harper	4.4	.620	.212	.012	.210	.584	.968	.276	.376	.503	.879
Luis Arraez	4.3	1.003	.175	.036	.058	.209	.212	.311	.348	.413	.761
Alec Bohm	4.2	.750	.179	.013	.126	.291	.644	.274	.331	.424	.755
Bryson Stott	4.1	.699	.167	.031	.100	.371	.697	.267	.337	.409	.746
Brandon Marsh	4.0	.638	.166	.018	.127	.346	1.090	.260	.327	.419	.746
Justin Crawford	3.9	.760	.155	.034	.053	.259	.755	.277	.328	.382	.711
Garrett Stubbs	3.8	.564	.119	.010	.085	.285	.929	.225	.292	.339	.630

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections