Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Hunter Brown vs Cristopher Sánchez · 81°F

2.6% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

44.4%

Philadelphia Phillies win

55.6%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

8.84

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.24)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.60)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.84

Over

48.7%

Under

43.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	44.4%	+134	+125
Philadelphia Phillies	55.6%	-146	-125

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Hunter Brown RHP · Houston Astros	5.1	5.3	5.2	2.2	2.4
Cristopher Sánchez LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	6.0	5.8	5.9	1.5	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Hunter Brown4+ 79%6+ 44%8+ 15%

Cristopher Sánchez4+ 84%6+ 53%8+ 22%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.857	.214	.015	.126	.217	1.020	.272	.316	.412	.728
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.746	.226	.010	.226	.547	.919	.299	.389	.528	.917
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.655	.183	.009	.158	.421	.798	.250	.335	.418	.753
Jose Altuve	4.4	.757	.176	.016	.126	.298	.914	.262	.316	.404	.721
Yainer Diaz	4.3	.775	.195	.011	.138	.146	.821	.269	.298	.421	.719
Christian Walker	4.2	.563	.157	.008	.157	.298	1.166	.230	.294	.396	.690
Daulton Varsho	4.1	.534	.159	.030	.135	.277	1.060	.226	.284	.391	.674
Cam Smith	4.0	.572	.150	.033	.116	.256	1.108	.236	.293	.390	.683
Jorge Barrosa	3.9	.560	.165	.012	.051	.230	1.062	.219	.272	.314	.586

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.434	.115	.007	.307	.778	1.530	.226	.363	.500	.863
Trea Turner	4.5	.785	.167	.018	.140	.343	1.019	.266	.328	.416	.744
Bryce Harper	4.4	.589	.203	.014	.207	.659	1.079	.270	.384	.498	.882
Luis Arraez	4.3	1.007	.177	.038	.063	.269	.235	.319	.366	.428	.795
Bryson Stott	4.2	.676	.161	.032	.105	.432	.826	.258	.338	.402	.740
Brandon Marsh	4.1	.622	.163	.018	.132	.408	1.244	.253	.331	.414	.746
Justin Crawford	4.0	.753	.153	.032	.054	.302	.863	.269	.329	.372	.702
J.T. Realmuto	3.9	.565	.153	.009	.127	.304	1.007	.241	.311	.396	.707
Bryan De La Cruz	3.8	.564	.136	.003	.125	.270	1.090	.237	.296	.385	.681

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections