Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

September 7, 2026 · Grant Holmes vs Jesús Luzardo · 76°F

2.1% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

41.9%

Philadelphia Phillies win

58.1%

Fair line (home)

-139

Proj. total

9.37

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.40)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.97)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.37

Over

54.2%

Under

37.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	41.9%	+146	+139
Philadelphia Phillies	58.1%	-159	-139

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Grant Holmes RHP · Atlanta Braves	4.5	3.7	5.2	2.1	2.6
Jesús Luzardo LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.7	6.3	5.5	1.9	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Grant Holmes4+ 51%6+ 15%8+ 3%

Jesús Luzardo4+ 89%6+ 62%8+ 30%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.8	.702	.165	.018	.199	.595	1.212	.262	.361	.455	.816
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.763	.157	.010	.189	.410	1.075	.265	.336	.442	.778
Ozzie Albies	4.6	.729	.183	.007	.137	.296	.863	.251	.307	.395	.702
Matt Olson	4.5	.557	.183	.005	.222	.485	1.296	.246	.334	.465	.799
Lane Thomas	4.3	.567	.179	.008	.130	.371	1.324	.225	.298	.374	.671
Michael Harris II	4.2	.721	.199	.020	.178	.165	.992	.276	.309	.467	.776
Mauricio Dubón	4.1	.752	.181	.013	.076	.214	.613	.263	.305	.375	.680
Austin Riley	4.0	.535	.154	.010	.144	.293	1.335	.229	.294	.394	.688
Ha-Seong Kim	3.9	.548	.139	.010	.070	.399	.920	.222	.307	.329	.636

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.477	.117	.010	.330	.748	1.389	.240	.368	.529	.897
Trea Turner	4.6	.830	.192	.021	.146	.327	.876	.282	.338	.441	.779
Bryce Harper	4.5	.642	.206	.016	.228	.635	.926	.287	.393	.530	.923
Luis Arraez	4.4	1.021	.189	.036	.060	.238	.195	.319	.361	.427	.788
Alec Bohm	4.3	.764	.189	.012	.133	.307	.633	.282	.342	.439	.780
Bryson Stott	4.2	.696	.167	.030	.102	.402	.674	.267	.342	.411	.753
Brandon Marsh	4.0	.667	.169	.019	.132	.374	1.057	.271	.342	.436	.778
J.T. Realmuto	3.9	.601	.162	.009	.131	.279	.898	.251	.314	.410	.725
Justin Crawford	3.8	.759	.156	.033	.059	.264	.705	.286	.339	.399	.738

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections