Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · Hayden Wesneski vs Andrew Painter · 78°F

6.9% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

50.7%

Philadelphia Phillies win

49.3%

Fair line (home)

+103

Proj. total

10.58

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 5.45)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.13)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

10.58

Over

64.3%

Under

35.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	50.7%	+124	-103
Philadelphia Phillies	49.3%	-134	+103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Hayden Wesneski RHP · Houston Astros	4.9	4.1	5.7	1.9	2.8
Andrew Painter RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	4.8	3.7	5.4	1.9	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Hayden Wesneski4+ 59%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Andrew Painter4+ 51%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.9	.889	.225	.016	.196	.277	.864	.291	.341	.476	.817
Yordan Alvarez	4.8	.746	.229	.012	.311	.691	.767	.321	.427	.615	1.042
Isaac Paredes	4.7	.657	.189	.009	.231	.534	.661	.268	.366	.490	.856
Jose Altuve	4.6	.765	.181	.014	.176	.382	.797	.273	.340	.451	.790
Daulton Varsho	4.5	.585	.167	.035	.204	.363	.967	.243	.310	.451	.761
Yainer Diaz	4.4	.780	.196	.008	.194	.178	.698	.283	.316	.474	.790
Christian Walker	4.3	.539	.164	.008	.222	.368	1.007	.244	.319	.464	.784
Taylor Trammell	4.1	.478	.152	.024	.168	.434	1.185	.224	.314	.416	.729
Cam Smith	4.0	.577	.156	.035	.152	.324	.967	.251	.319	.438	.757

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.468	.121	.009	.374	.733	1.407	.246	.370	.565	.935
Trea Turner	4.6	.815	.176	.022	.173	.315	.931	.278	.333	.451	.784
Bryce Harper	4.5	.636	.215	.014	.248	.639	.968	.290	.395	.546	.942
Luis Arraez	4.4	1.016	.181	.038	.073	.242	.215	.317	.360	.433	.793
Alec Bohm	4.3	.759	.188	.013	.151	.321	.658	.283	.345	.453	.798
Bryson Stott	4.2	.679	.153	.035	.114	.405	.719	.261	.337	.411	.748
Brandon Marsh	4.1	.647	.163	.019	.157	.369	1.121	.267	.337	.449	.786
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.601	.168	.011	.149	.285	.912	.256	.321	.431	.752
Justin Crawford	3.9	.748	.159	.029	.062	.273	.752	.281	.336	.394	.730

Data notes: away starter Hayden Wesneski: only 65 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections