Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

September 10, 2026 · Cristian Javier vs Zack Wheeler · 85°F

5.4% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

42.0%

Philadelphia Phillies win

58.0%

Fair line (home)

-138

Proj. total

9.6

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.50)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 5.11)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.6

Over

55.5%

Under

44.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	42.0%	+167	+138
Philadelphia Phillies	58.0%	-183	-138

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cristian Javier RHP · Houston Astros	3.5	2.8	4.0	1.6	2.1
Zack Wheeler RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.3	5.9	4.9	1.6	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Cristian Javier4+ 32%6+ 6%8+ 1%

Zack Wheeler4+ 86%6+ 56%8+ 24%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.793	.197	.015	.164	.242	1.105	.264	.315	.426	.741
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.689	.206	.010	.270	.600	.972	.296	.397	.557	.953
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.621	.168	.009	.199	.463	.847	.251	.344	.448	.792
Jose Altuve	4.4	.695	.169	.016	.147	.339	.972	.253	.317	.412	.729
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.532	.161	.028	.179	.321	1.174	.226	.289	.416	.706
Christian Walker	4.2	.508	.151	.007	.202	.315	1.215	.226	.296	.427	.724
Cam Smith	4.1	.555	.146	.031	.143	.301	1.177	.233	.298	.403	.701
Taylor Trammell	4.0	.431	.140	.026	.143	.369	1.349	.207	.290	.380	.670
Christian Vázquez	3.9	.573	.125	.004	.096	.226	.920	.220	.271	.336	.607

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.421	.108	.009	.401	.805	1.386	.244	.382	.590	.972
Trea Turner	4.6	.773	.185	.020	.183	.341	.935	.276	.336	.460	.796
Bryce Harper	4.5	.583	.201	.015	.272	.698	.956	.286	.401	.565	.967
Luis Arraez	4.4	.986	.179	.034	.076	.281	.219	.314	.364	.431	.795
Alec Bohm	4.3	.705	.174	.016	.164	.349	.678	.274	.342	.454	.795
Bryson Stott	4.2	.643	.160	.028	.125	.446	.723	.260	.345	.421	.767
Brandon Marsh	4.0	.618	.158	.018	.159	.407	1.098	.263	.342	.448	.790
Justin Crawford	3.9	.735	.155	.029	.070	.293	.785	.273	.332	.391	.723
Rafael Marchán	3.8	.540	.124	.011	.106	.298	.715	.225	.297	.358	.655

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections