Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Dustin May vs Zack Wheeler · 62°F

3.7% edge · Philadelphia Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers win

40.3%

Philadelphia Phillies win

59.7%

Fair line (home)

-148

Proj. total

8.48

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 3.90)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.58)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.48

Over

52.8%

Under

36.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	40.3%	+123	+148
Philadelphia Phillies	59.7%	-133	-148

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Dustin May RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.6	4.1	4.9	1.9	2.3
Zack Wheeler RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.4	6.6	4.8	1.8	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Dustin May4+ 61%6+ 23%8+ 4%

Zack Wheeler4+ 91%6+ 67%8+ 33%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Garrett Mitchell	4.8	.648	.186	.031	.114	.431	1.666	.230	.309	.368	.677
Jackson Chourio	4.6	.709	.217	.013	.166	.296	1.224	.256	.308	.427	.735
Brice Turang	4.5	.686	.173	.017	.105	.445	1.226	.241	.319	.370	.689
William Contreras	4.4	.703	.182	.007	.131	.453	.909	.260	.341	.409	.750
Jake Bauers	4.3	.508	.136	.013	.156	.550	1.377	.218	.325	.388	.713
Christian Yelich	4.2	.627	.150	.012	.114	.402	1.220	.239	.318	.376	.694
Luis Lara	4.1	.676	.141	.036	.050	.339	1.002	.242	.313	.340	.653
Cooper Pratt	4.0	.615	.130	.033	.072	.319	.896	.234	.304	.347	.651
David Hamilton	3.9	.543	.119	.026	.073	.282	1.085	.213	.275	.323	.598

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.443	.122	.009	.277	.768	1.423	.222	.360	.475	.835
Trea Turner	4.5	.791	.189	.018	.136	.336	.914	.273	.335	.425	.760
Bryce Harper	4.4	.603	.203	.013	.189	.644	.994	.269	.381	.480	.861
Luis Arraez	4.3	.987	.190	.033	.062	.258	.214	.316	.363	.425	.788
Alec Bohm	4.2	.738	.184	.014	.106	.332	.679	.271	.338	.409	.747
Bryson Stott	4.1	.669	.161	.029	.084	.408	.734	.256	.336	.384	.720
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.587	.165	.010	.113	.297	.976	.241	.311	.385	.696
Brandon Marsh	3.9	.606	.161	.017	.110	.363	1.072	.255	.329	.404	.734
Justin Crawford	3.8	.730	.161	.034	.048	.266	.755	.279	.336	.386	.722

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections