Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

September 24, 2026 · Shane Drohan vs Andrew Painter · 62°F

6.2% edge · Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers win

50.2%

Philadelphia Phillies win

49.8%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

9.26

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.78)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.48)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.26

Over

52.5%

Under

40.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	50.2%	+123	-101
Philadelphia Phillies	49.8%	-133	+101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Shane Drohan LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	3.7	3.3	3.9	1.6	1.7
Andrew Painter RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	4.8	4.0	5.2	2.3	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Shane Drohan4+ 43%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Andrew Painter4+ 58%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Garrett Mitchell	4.9	.754	.217	.035	.142	.515	1.417	.263	.347	.426	.774
Brice Turang	4.8	.783	.196	.018	.126	.528	1.048	.263	.346	.406	.753
William Contreras	4.7	.793	.207	.009	.159	.526	.739	.282	.367	.451	.818
Jake Bauers	4.6	.573	.166	.014	.205	.668	1.220	.246	.362	.455	.816
Gary Sánchez	4.5	.563	.141	.016	.201	.501	1.015	.235	.332	.434	.766
Luis Lara	4.4	.762	.159	.035	.062	.399	.853	.259	.334	.364	.698
Cooper Pratt	4.3	.686	.147	.039	.081	.386	.763	.248	.322	.370	.692
Sal Frelick	4.2	.792	.182	.012	.070	.337	.503	.280	.345	.390	.735
Joey Ortiz	4.0	.669	.168	.034	.091	.318	.702	.261	.324	.399	.723

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.441	.118	.009	.285	.763	1.413	.221	.358	.478	.835
Trea Turner	4.6	.792	.196	.017	.130	.337	.941	.271	.331	.419	.750
Bryce Harper	4.4	.614	.201	.014	.184	.649	.995	.269	.381	.477	.858
Luis Arraez	4.3	.985	.178	.032	.056	.262	.214	.310	.357	.412	.769
Alec Bohm	4.2	.750	.185	.013	.110	.337	.666	.274	.340	.415	.755
Bryan De La Cruz	4.1	.635	.155	.004	.130	.291	1.084	.242	.300	.387	.687
Bryson Stott	4.0	.655	.158	.028	.088	.410	.690	.259	.339	.393	.732
J.T. Realmuto	3.9	.572	.157	.011	.101	.296	.942	.237	.307	.372	.679
Justin Crawford	3.8	.723	.152	.036	.050	.278	.734	.276	.333	.383	.716

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections