Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Logan Henderson vs Aaron Nola · 62°F

4.3% edge · Philadelphia Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers win

49.3%

Philadelphia Phillies win

50.7%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

8.84

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.50)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.33)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.84

Over

56.3%

Under

32.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	49.3%	-121	+103
Philadelphia Phillies	50.7%	+111	-103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Logan Henderson RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.7	4.7	4.7	1.5	2.1
Aaron Nola RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.2	5.3	5.4	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Logan Henderson4+ 71%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Aaron Nola4+ 79%6+ 43%8+ 15%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Garrett Mitchell	4.8	.719	.208	.028	.140	.452	1.528	.252	.328	.410	.738
Jackson Chourio	4.7	.772	.217	.015	.198	.293	1.093	.273	.321	.463	.784
Brice Turang	4.6	.724	.183	.019	.119	.461	1.121	.253	.330	.392	.722
William Contreras	4.5	.754	.198	.008	.160	.448	.796	.279	.355	.451	.806
Jake Bauers	4.4	.553	.144	.014	.194	.577	1.264	.239	.344	.438	.782
Joey Ortiz	4.3	.697	.170	.035	.102	.305	.822	.253	.310	.390	.700
Christian Yelich	4.2	.663	.157	.012	.129	.388	1.105	.255	.330	.406	.736
Sal Frelick	4.1	.758	.183	.014	.070	.312	.560	.275	.336	.387	.724
David Hamilton	4.0	.577	.125	.030	.083	.286	.999	.223	.283	.341	.624

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.6	.418	.113	.008	.320	.656	1.516	.220	.337	.498	.835
Trea Turner	4.5	.736	.176	.018	.144	.286	1.010	.258	.310	.412	.723
Bryce Harper	4.4	.585	.196	.011	.209	.559	1.085	.264	.362	.487	.849
Luis Arraez	4.3	.958	.175	.035	.059	.230	.240	.305	.347	.410	.757
Alec Bohm	4.2	.710	.177	.013	.119	.288	.729	.265	.322	.410	.732
Bryson Stott	4.1	.641	.153	.029	.094	.379	.779	.250	.323	.384	.707
Brandon Marsh	4.0	.614	.157	.019	.116	.331	1.158	.251	.317	.401	.718
J.T. Realmuto	3.8	.545	.147	.009	.116	.256	1.006	.231	.294	.377	.671
Justin Crawford	3.7	.701	.141	.034	.056	.241	.784	.270	.321	.379	.700

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections