Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Odds

September 25, 2026 · Freddy Peralta vs Cristopher Sánchez · 68°F

4.8% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

43.7%

Philadelphia Phillies win

56.3%

Fair line (home)

-129

Proj. total

8.34

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.99)Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.35)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

8.34

Over

64.0%

Under

36.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	43.7%	+152	+129
Philadelphia Phillies	56.3%	-165	-129

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Freddy Peralta RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.1	5.2	5.1	2.1	2.5
Cristopher Sánchez LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	6.0	5.5	6.3	1.3	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Freddy Peralta4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Cristopher Sánchez4+ 81%6+ 47%8+ 17%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.917	.214	.011	.127	.364	.791	.292	.353	.434	.788
Jonathan Aranda	4.6	.793	.198	.004	.118	.377	1.242	.265	.335	.399	.734
Junior Caminero	4.5	.710	.188	.009	.232	.335	.932	.274	.332	.491	.823
Ryan Vilade	4.4	.674	.167	.029	.098	.295	1.183	.237	.295	.365	.660
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.694	.211	.019	.099	.204	.976	.251	.292	.385	.678
Chandler Simpson	4.2	1.062	.138	.050	.011	.177	.433	.314	.344	.381	.725
Ben Williamson	4.1	.761	.203	.019	.038	.229	.894	.265	.312	.357	.669
Nick Fortes	4.0	.681	.178	.007	.072	.167	.702	.249	.292	.358	.649
Jorge Mateo	3.9	.536	.179	.010	.074	.180	1.184	.218	.259	.333	.591

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.6	.414	.113	.008	.322	.703	1.440	.224	.353	.511	.864
Trea Turner	4.5	.732	.181	.016	.142	.310	.944	.261	.319	.416	.736
Bryce Harper	4.4	.585	.194	.013	.209	.604	1.006	.269	.375	.496	.871
Alec Bohm	4.3	.731	.178	.010	.130	.319	.693	.269	.332	.421	.753
Bryson Stott	4.2	.633	.157	.029	.099	.406	.762	.246	.325	.384	.709
Brandon Marsh	4.0	.623	.156	.017	.138	.355	1.143	.254	.324	.419	.743
Justin Crawford	3.9	.714	.146	.037	.056	.269	.823	.261	.317	.368	.685
J.T. Realmuto	3.8	.542	.145	.010	.116	.272	.958	.233	.299	.379	.679
Edmundo Sosa	3.7	.567	.143	.023	.127	.155	.869	.248	.295	.412	.707

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections