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4.1% edge · Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds
July 7, 2026 · Hurston Waldrep vs Paul Skenes · 82°F
Atlanta Braves win
46.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates win
53.5%
Fair line (home)
-115
Proj. total
7.9
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Atlanta Braves (mean 3.88)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.02)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
7.9
Over
40.4%
Under
52.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 46.5% | +131 | +115 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.5% | -142 | -115 |
Atlanta Braves — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | 4.7 | .821 | .192 | .026 | .153 | .200 | 1.088 | .265 | .301 | .421 | .722 |
| Ozzie Albies | 4.6 | .761 | .183 | .013 | .106 | .309 | .842 | .250 | .308 | .373 | .681 |
| Matt Olson | 4.5 | .575 | .188 | .007 | .169 | .495 | 1.275 | .236 | .326 | .415 | .740 |
| Drake Baldwin | 4.4 | .709 | .157 | .010 | .148 | .416 | .973 | .259 | .336 | .417 | .753 |
| Mauricio Dubón | 4.3 | .789 | .182 | .015 | .062 | .235 | .714 | .260 | .306 | .359 | .665 |
| Dominic Smith | 4.2 | .705 | .149 | .015 | .080 | .306 | .960 | .247 | .310 | .356 | .666 |
| Austin Riley | 4.1 | .582 | .157 | .013 | .124 | .305 | 1.269 | .235 | .301 | .385 | .686 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 4.0 | .496 | .146 | .016 | .097 | .412 | 1.084 | .214 | .303 | .347 | .651 |
| Jim Jarvis | 3.9 | .604 | .152 | .016 | .027 | .285 | .884 | .227 | .293 | .302 | .595 |
Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum | 4.6 | .953 | .205 | .015 | .034 | .265 | .817 | .281 | .330 | .359 | .689 |
| Brandon Lowe | 4.5 | .604 | .181 | .012 | .178 | .466 | 1.109 | .244 | .328 | .429 | .757 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 4.4 | .665 | .171 | .023 | .117 | .493 | 1.050 | .254 | .348 | .402 | .750 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | 4.3 | .557 | .168 | .009 | .139 | .465 | 1.190 | .232 | .323 | .391 | .714 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 4.2 | .697 | .173 | .010 | .115 | .440 | .798 | .268 | .352 | .413 | .765 |
| Nick Gonzales | 4.1 | .746 | .199 | .022 | .058 | .301 | .780 | .274 | .336 | .386 | .722 |
| Tyler Callihan | 4.0 | .581 | .157 | .015 | .070 | .359 | 1.081 | .229 | .303 | .340 | .644 |
| Jared Triolo | 3.9 | .613 | .151 | .012 | .051 | .451 | .883 | .245 | .339 | .342 | .682 |
| Henry Davis | 3.7 | .487 | .138 | .007 | .109 | .354 | .926 | .223 | .310 | .367 | .677 |
Data notes: away starter Hurston Waldrep: only 18 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Hurston Waldrep: only 16 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections