← Slate
3.1% edge · Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds
July 8, 2026 · Grant Holmes vs Jared Jones · 85°F
Atlanta Braves win
51.4%
Pittsburgh Pirates win
48.6%
Fair line (home)
+106
Proj. total
8.61
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Atlanta Braves (mean 4.47)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.14)
Totals
O/U line
9.5
Proj. total
8.61
Over
42.4%
Under
57.6%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 51.4% | +103 | -106 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.6% | -111 | +106 |
Atlanta Braves — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | 4.8 | .869 | .201 | .028 | .181 | .231 | .946 | .280 | .320 | .456 | .776 |
| Ozzie Albies | 4.7 | .768 | .193 | .010 | .132 | .377 | .734 | .257 | .326 | .400 | .726 |
| Matt Olson | 4.6 | .605 | .203 | .009 | .206 | .594 | 1.140 | .258 | .360 | .469 | .828 |
| Drake Baldwin | 4.5 | .736 | .162 | .011 | .177 | .483 | .860 | .273 | .358 | .452 | .810 |
| Mauricio Dubón | 4.4 | .799 | .196 | .017 | .072 | .277 | .624 | .265 | .316 | .374 | .690 |
| Austin Riley | 4.3 | .620 | .164 | .015 | .150 | .369 | 1.192 | .245 | .319 | .412 | .731 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 4.2 | .534 | .164 | .019 | .118 | .498 | 1.007 | .229 | .329 | .382 | .711 |
| Joey Bart | 4.1 | .614 | .136 | .009 | .088 | .398 | 1.190 | .235 | .324 | .351 | .676 |
| Jorge Mateo | 4.0 | .578 | .178 | .011 | .088 | .261 | 1.057 | .233 | .290 | .360 | .650 |
Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum | 4.6 | .950 | .207 | .015 | .037 | .255 | .846 | .279 | .327 | .359 | .686 |
| Brandon Lowe | 4.5 | .602 | .175 | .011 | .208 | .425 | 1.175 | .246 | .323 | .449 | .772 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 4.4 | .671 | .172 | .023 | .130 | .452 | 1.071 | .256 | .342 | .412 | .754 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | 4.3 | .568 | .174 | .009 | .154 | .419 | 1.239 | .236 | .319 | .407 | .726 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 4.2 | .706 | .167 | .011 | .132 | .412 | .822 | .272 | .350 | .428 | .778 |
| Nick Gonzales | 4.1 | .735 | .203 | .021 | .064 | .277 | .818 | .272 | .329 | .388 | .717 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 4.0 | .532 | .128 | .002 | .155 | .500 | 1.023 | .236 | .337 | .409 | .745 |
| Jared Triolo | 3.9 | .604 | .149 | .010 | .058 | .425 | .924 | .241 | .330 | .341 | .671 |
| Henry Davis | 3.8 | .492 | .138 | .006 | .114 | .338 | .958 | .223 | .305 | .370 | .675 |
Data notes: home starter Jared Jones: only 51 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections