Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

July 9, 2026 · Bryce Elder vs Mitch Keller · 78°F

1.9% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

53.3%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

46.7%

Fair line (home)

+114

Proj. total

8.69

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.61)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.08)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

8.69

Over

42.7%

Under

57.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	53.3%	-110	-114
Pittsburgh Pirates	46.7%	+102	+114

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Michael Harris II	4.9	.918	.215	.030	.173	.203	.851	.289	.326	.461	.787
Ozzie Albies	4.8	.827	.200	.014	.123	.347	.622	.269	.332	.407	.739
Matt Olson	4.6	.651	.219	.009	.200	.547	1.028	.266	.360	.473	.833
Drake Baldwin	4.5	.780	.177	.013	.170	.438	.775	.282	.359	.458	.817
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.829	.199	.019	.069	.254	.548	.270	.317	.377	.694
Dominic Smith	4.3	.752	.166	.017	.096	.336	.780	.262	.329	.386	.715
Austin Riley	4.2	.651	.172	.015	.142	.337	1.061	.257	.327	.422	.748
Mike Yastrzemski	4.1	.557	.169	.020	.114	.442	.888	.239	.331	.392	.723
Jim Jarvis	4.0	.663	.164	.017	.028	.311	.707	.241	.311	.319	.630

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.6	.974	.215	.016	.040	.231	.754	.286	.328	.370	.698
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.648	.190	.014	.202	.379	1.047	.257	.326	.458	.784
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.725	.181	.025	.120	.426	.961	.269	.349	.420	.769
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.599	.186	.009	.143	.391	1.116	.242	.319	.406	.725
Ryan O'Hearn	4.2	.751	.170	.013	.129	.362	.750	.280	.349	.435	.784
Nick Gonzales	4.1	.773	.221	.027	.057	.253	.722	.284	.335	.400	.736
Tyler Callihan	4.0	.602	.168	.017	.075	.308	1.021	.236	.299	.353	.652
Rafael Flores Jr.	3.9	.599	.144	.016	.078	.313	1.070	.237	.304	.354	.657
Jared Triolo	3.8	.632	.155	.013	.053	.373	.806	.255	.335	.357	.692

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections