Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

July 12, 2026 · Robert Gasser vs Paul Skenes · 79°F

3.8% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers win

43.8%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

56.2%

Fair line (home)

-128

Proj. total

7.54

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 3.60)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 3.93)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.54

Over

38.7%

Under

53.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	43.8%	+106	+128
Pittsburgh Pirates	56.2%	-115	-128

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Christian Yelich	4.7	.680	.156	.012	.118	.471	1.420	.232	.315	.360	.675
Jackson Chourio	4.6	.680	.205	.014	.158	.282	1.209	.248	.299	.413	.713
Brice Turang	4.5	.700	.164	.022	.092	.433	1.234	.243	.319	.363	.682
Jake Bauers	4.4	.494	.142	.011	.147	.499	1.464	.207	.305	.364	.669
Gary Sánchez	4.3	.502	.104	.017	.156	.410	1.247	.206	.297	.366	.662
Garrett Mitchell	4.2	.550	.150	.031	.090	.399	1.539	.220	.302	.349	.651
Sal Frelick	4.0	.720	.160	.014	.056	.318	.667	.257	.322	.353	.675
Joey Ortiz	3.9	.603	.151	.013	.063	.296	.844	.230	.294	.332	.627
Braden Shewmake	3.8	.522	.140	.017	.068	.197	.934	.209	.258	.315	.573

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.5	.925	.191	.008	.044	.200	.834	.274	.317	.353	.670
Brandon Lowe	4.4	.550	.163	.010	.224	.370	1.204	.236	.308	.449	.757
Bryan Reynolds	4.3	.626	.154	.012	.150	.378	1.092	.244	.325	.407	.732
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.2	.534	.155	.010	.171	.388	1.277	.231	.310	.413	.724
Ryan O'Hearn	4.1	.670	.152	.009	.145	.355	.842	.263	.335	.427	.762
Nick Gonzales	4.0	.712	.175	.024	.069	.277	.800	.268	.330	.386	.716
Marcell Ozuna	3.9	.508	.117	.002	.160	.460	1.050	.231	.328	.408	.736
Jared Triolo	3.8	.569	.148	.009	.061	.381	.911	.235	.320	.339	.659
Henry Davis	3.7	.443	.129	.006	.119	.303	.929	.212	.293	.364	.656

Data notes: away starter Robert Gasser: only 59 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections