Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

July 10, 2026 · Brandon Sproat vs Braxton Ashcraft · 79°F

1.4% edge · Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers win

47.9%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

52.1%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

8.09

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.06)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.03)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.09

Over

40.9%

Under

51.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	47.9%	+111	+109
Pittsburgh Pirates	52.1%	-120	-109

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Christian Yelich	4.8	.763	.163	.014	.118	.511	1.288	.247	.332	.374	.706
Garrett Mitchell	4.7	.661	.192	.035	.116	.467	1.566	.238	.320	.384	.704
Brice Turang	4.6	.753	.186	.024	.097	.457	1.083	.256	.333	.383	.717
William Contreras	4.5	.778	.185	.006	.118	.479	.814	.273	.355	.411	.766
Jake Bauers	4.4	.537	.151	.011	.153	.511	1.315	.221	.319	.386	.704
Luis Lara	4.3	.697	.141	.027	.046	.410	.908	.238	.321	.325	.646
Cooper Pratt	4.2	.642	.132	.033	.059	.397	.828	.232	.315	.333	.648
Sal Frelick	4.1	.760	.170	.014	.057	.326	.553	.271	.336	.370	.706
Joey Ortiz	4.0	.637	.165	.017	.067	.313	.736	.245	.312	.356	.668

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.6	.932	.197	.012	.045	.257	.814	.277	.327	.360	.687
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.569	.169	.010	.205	.460	1.176	.238	.323	.439	.762
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.660	.166	.016	.130	.497	1.070	.254	.350	.408	.758
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.554	.156	.015	.159	.458	1.238	.234	.325	.410	.735
Ryan O'Hearn	4.2	.698	.165	.010	.136	.410	.828	.271	.350	.430	.780
Nick Gonzales	4.1	.733	.189	.024	.061	.318	.806	.272	.337	.385	.722
Tyler Callihan	4.0	.550	.134	.035	.072	.357	1.139	.221	.296	.338	.635
Jared Triolo	3.9	.585	.141	.009	.060	.461	.887	.237	.337	.339	.676
Henry Davis	3.7	.465	.131	.004	.112	.363	.932	.216	.309	.361	.670

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections