Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Shane Drohan vs Bubba Chandler · 81°F

4.5% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers win

52.7%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

47.3%

Fair line (home)

+112

Proj. total

8.58

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.56)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.02)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.58

Over

39.1%

Under

50.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	52.7%	-140	-112
Pittsburgh Pirates	47.3%	+129	+112

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Christian Yelich	4.9	.738	.172	.012	.149	.650	1.178	.253	.358	.406	.764
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.735	.224	.016	.189	.394	1.016	.266	.331	.454	.785
Brice Turang	4.7	.735	.180	.023	.111	.586	1.033	.257	.353	.394	.747
Jake Bauers	4.6	.546	.160	.010	.172	.677	1.250	.230	.351	.410	.761
Gary Sánchez	4.5	.536	.127	.018	.191	.551	1.066	.227	.337	.419	.756
Garrett Mitchell	4.4	.595	.168	.031	.119	.546	1.341	.242	.344	.398	.742
Luis Lara	4.3	.668	.136	.021	.046	.522	.831	.236	.340	.322	.662
Cooper Pratt	4.2	.622	.125	.030	.062	.490	.762	.232	.331	.334	.665
Joey Ortiz	4.0	.639	.169	.014	.071	.381	.697	.246	.324	.359	.684

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Gonzales	4.6	.815	.209	.025	.077	.355	.925	.269	.334	.386	.720
Brandon Lowe	4.5	.560	.170	.010	.210	.453	1.185	.237	.319	.442	.762
Bryan Reynolds	4.4	.630	.161	.013	.134	.462	1.093	.243	.334	.396	.730
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.547	.160	.012	.166	.457	1.238	.235	.325	.415	.740
Ryan O'Hearn	4.2	.668	.162	.009	.137	.411	.847	.263	.343	.422	.764
Marcell Ozuna	4.1	.523	.124	.004	.154	.538	1.079	.229	.336	.398	.734
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.0	.559	.140	.012	.088	.396	1.134	.225	.308	.346	.654
Jared Triolo	3.9	.581	.139	.007	.061	.440	.904	.233	.327	.333	.660
Billy Cook	3.7	.492	.137	.011	.087	.295	1.102	.214	.284	.337	.621

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections