Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

July 25, 2026 · Shota Imanaga vs Paul Skenes · 82°F

1.9% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs win

45.6%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

54.4%

Fair line (home)

-119

Proj. total

7.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 3.87)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.03)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.9

Over

47.8%

Under

52.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	45.6%	+107	+119
Pittsburgh Pirates	54.4%	-115	-119

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.664	.185	.042	.166	.299	1.381	.242	.301	.417	.718
Seiya Suzuki	4.6	.627	.178	.016	.153	.449	1.396	.235	.315	.397	.712
Michael Busch	4.5	.565	.168	.027	.142	.482	1.308	.227	.321	.391	.712
Alex Bregman	4.4	.670	.158	.010	.109	.459	.792	.243	.332	.373	.705
Ian Happ	4.3	.514	.151	.013	.117	.492	1.349	.211	.309	.351	.660
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.799	.193	.011	.046	.295	.492	.272	.334	.363	.697
Pedro Ramírez	4.1	.713	.146	.025	.050	.238	.944	.245	.298	.336	.633
Dansby Swanson	4.0	.540	.130	.018	.109	.335	1.147	.220	.290	.355	.645
Miguel Amaya	3.9	.529	.147	.007	.082	.304	.969	.220	.297	.337	.634

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.5	.923	.206	.007	.049	.162	.806	.274	.308	.359	.667
Nick Gonzales	4.4	.823	.213	.025	.087	.251	.848	.279	.328	.406	.734
Bryan Reynolds	4.3	.680	.172	.014	.160	.337	1.050	.261	.327	.435	.762
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.2	.584	.167	.013	.193	.335	1.211	.249	.316	.450	.766
Ryan O'Hearn	4.1	.710	.167	.011	.156	.300	.803	.276	.335	.451	.785
Marcell Ozuna	4.0	.554	.128	.004	.180	.406	1.044	.242	.323	.432	.755
Jared Triolo	3.9	.629	.158	.010	.074	.350	.894	.248	.321	.361	.682
Jacob Gonzalez	3.8	.561	.137	.008	.110	.256	.780	.235	.293	.374	.667
Henry Davis	3.6	.473	.128	.005	.138	.260	.908	.223	.289	.388	.677

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections