Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Prediction & Odds

July 26, 2026 · Jameson Taillon vs Braxton Ashcraft · 81°F

3.5% edge · Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs win

48.8%

Pittsburgh Pirates win

51.2%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

8.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago Cubs (mean 4.29)Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.16)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.45

Over

35.5%

Under

54.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago Cubs	48.8%	+117	+105
Pittsburgh Pirates	51.2%	-126	-105

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.8	.720	.204	.045	.180	.332	1.215	.260	.322	.448	.770
Seiya Suzuki	4.7	.680	.201	.017	.161	.475	1.243	.252	.333	.423	.756
Michael Busch	4.6	.615	.171	.028	.156	.506	1.155	.241	.335	.413	.748
Ian Happ	4.5	.580	.177	.017	.134	.513	1.237	.230	.326	.386	.712
Nico Hoerner	4.4	.880	.205	.013	.044	.309	.423	.284	.346	.375	.721
Michael Conforto	4.3	.579	.172	.007	.125	.453	1.112	.234	.324	.382	.706
Carson Kelly	4.2	.652	.141	.009	.098	.400	.820	.241	.322	.363	.685
Pedro Ramírez	4.1	.741	.144	.029	.055	.246	.804	.257	.311	.354	.665
Dansby Swanson	4.0	.575	.135	.019	.116	.348	.997	.236	.309	.382	.690

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.5	.957	.208	.013	.052	.200	.726	.285	.323	.376	.699
Brandon Lowe	4.4	.612	.182	.010	.249	.348	1.043	.259	.322	.493	.815
Bryan Reynolds	4.3	.701	.173	.019	.169	.390	.940	.273	.346	.457	.803
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.2	.586	.170	.011	.194	.372	1.120	.251	.323	.454	.777
Ryan O'Hearn	4.1	.736	.174	.011	.165	.330	.728	.287	.350	.470	.820
Nick Gonzales	4.0	.758	.202	.027	.079	.251	.697	.285	.338	.418	.756
Jacob Gonzalez	3.9	.615	.153	.009	.115	.275	.723	.247	.307	.389	.696
Shawn Ross	3.8	.378	.109	.005	.115	.343	1.487	.177	.257	.312	.569
Tyler Callihan	3.7	.548	.132	.032	.083	.270	.965	.235	.296	.368	.663

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections